1  Cover

      2  Title Page

      3  Copyright

      4  Dedication

      5  Foreword SANTA MARINA SPITZ MUTUA MULI COST‐EFFECTIVE RISK MITIGATION

      6  Part One: What Comes First Chapter One: At War with Luck WRITTEN IN BLOOD PROBING BETS WHAT'S A SAFE HAVEN? THE GREAT DILEMMA FIRST PRINCIPLES MODUS TOLLENS DEDUCTIVE DICE Chapter Two: Nature's Admonition THE SWISS FAMILY BERNOULLI THE SAINT PETERSBURG PARADOX EMOLUMENTUM MEDIUM THE GEOMETRIC AVERAGE THE OTHER SAINT PETERSBURG PARADOX CONCAVITY OF CURVE THE LOGARITHMIC RHINE FALLS Chapter Three: The Eternal Return AN EXISTENTIAL IMPERATIVE INTO THE MULTIVERSE DICE WITH SCHRÖDINGER'S DEMON (N = ∞) DICE WITH NIETZSCHE'S DEMON (N = 1) THE HUSTLE OF NON‐ERGODICITY MAGIC TRICK OR MATH TRICK? SIDE BETS A GLIMPSE OF TREASURE

      7  Part Two: What Comes After Chapter Four: A Taxonomy ESSENTIALISM MORE DIFFERENT THAN ALIKE PHENOTYPES RISK‐MITIGATION IRONY IMPOSTERS THE DOGMA OF DIVERSIFICATION INDUCTIVE DICE Chapter Five: Holism THE CUCKOO IN THE CLOCK KEEPING BOTH EYES CLINICAL TRIALS THE COST‐AND‐EFFECT RELATIONSHIP RESHUFFLING AGNOSTICISM OFFENSIVE DEFENSE A NARROW, BROKEN WINDOW FRAME LOOKING DOWN THE TRACK THE GREAT PIRATES Chapter Six: Bold Conjectures EPISTEMOLOGY NEPTUNE OR VULCAN? CASH IS KING GO WITH THE FLOW ALL THAT GLITTERS THE SAFE HAVEN FRONTIER WHISTLING PAST THE GRAVEYARD

      8  Afterword LOOKING BACK THE ONE, AND ONLY ONE, PATH THE WILLIAM TELL SHOT PIRATE TREASURE A FORMULA FOR GREATNESS “I HAVE FORGOTTEN MY UMBRELLA.”

      9  Acknowledgments

      10  Index

      11  End User License Agreement

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