Economic crisis: Cosmos and people. Николай Игнатьевич Конюхов
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in shares on the New York Stock Exchange started on the 29th of October, "Black Tuesday." In one day, the stock fell in price by $ 10 billion. Simultaneously turnover was derived from more than 10% of the securities that had been pledged, and laid under the confidence that will soon become more expensive to build. All who were not in the forefront, faced a terrible choice: to sell at a low price and not that of losing profits, but to remain in debt, or lose all the perspectives, even livelihoods. It was a tough choice. Sometimes the market fluctuated. Then belief in getting huge profits in the future (metaprogram of achievement) was replaced by the confidence that we need to save at least something (metaprogram of avoidance), reason prevailed … This is a critical moment that changes the quality of people, psycho population players in the stock market, and a big part of economically active population in the largest country in the world.
The mass psychosis started in the market. Money that should be paid off to cover the debts to banks, had to be taken from somewhere … They began to sell gold and its price started falling and breaking the long uptrend. After that the gold began to drop inventory. Prices began to fall at all.
November 5 – almost all the planets (except Uranus) were on one side of the Sun, taking the form of bowls, the edges of which were Jupiter and Saturn. Why was it so important? When the cosmogram looks like "bowl", "within which" the Sun is observed as the exacerbation of chronic diseases, most heart attacks and strokes happen, people become more aggressive and it had already drawn the attention of the science. [13] The same situation was in the planet's climax moments of crises in 1929 and 2009. It was on the 5th of November when there was a drop in seasonal goods production – wheat, cotton, etc. Three weeks of trading on the U.S. led to economic losses that exceeded all expenses for the years of The First World War, amounting to about 30 billion dollars, that is one-third of the national income.
All that happened before any drastic measures were regulated in the amount of cash in circulation. This moment of economic history is forgotten and displaced from the consciousness of economists due to the fact that in the economic theory it is inexplicable. Economists do not want to admit it. But if the cause of the market fall is in the quality of its participants, the actions of regulators should be aimed at preventing such situations and changing the motivation of market participants to change themselves. This point must be the primary decision-making rather than amount of money in circulation.
Turning to the lessons of the economic and financial crises, bankers tend to argue that officials did not support and did not save collapsing banks. Industrialists are stable in their opinion that it was necessary to lend money to producers and not to engage in speculation … Representatives of leftist forces believe the money should be distributed among the common people that we need to increase from households. Each explains what happened in their own way and on the basis of their "parochial" interests.
We can make the following conclusion: Crisis of 1929-1933 years is an example of how market participants had created the image of the illusion in your mind that exchanges could make a profit out of the air due to the inventing of various secondary financial instruments and to implement the American dream, becoming wealthy in a few days. Under such market participants' desire the financial instruments were created and related. The illusion was so strong that it made the financial market sustainable in a situation where it had to collapse. Just like today.
This logic psychopathic behavior was popular among hysterical people. If they gave more money after September 1929, they would have immediately allowed the stock market speculation. Giving more money at the moment is not just the continuation of madness. Just as in the 2009 crisis. If there was no money for playing or if they would be reduced, than it would be followed by the blues, anxiety and depression, as it had been observed in the United States. The immediate cause of the economic downturn just stands the unusual change of mentality and the motivation of market participants with the behavior of people in awe. Behavior was exactly the same as hysteroid accentuations have after a violent agitation.
Taking oath on the 4th of March, 1933, Roosevelt said, "… the only thing to fear is fear itself, irrational, faceless, unjustified terror which paralyzes the efforts required to convert retreat in the offensive." And there was a joke about Roosevelt in those days, that his analyst was God himself.
We must note that the fear and panic coexisted with high spirits and confidence that everything will be great after a while. That is how people in that period of uncertainty and stress added more hormones that caused optimism, while others increased the amount of hormones that caused fear. Let us confirm this fact by the quotes of experts and market participants.
"It is time to buy stocks. Now anyone in America who stands for decrease will lose their money. Perhaps in a few days the bear panic will take place rather than a bull panic. Likely, there will be no such low prices for many of those shares that are being sold so hysterically" (JP. Morgan, "New York Herald Tribune", October 30, 1929). "You should buy a reliable, proven promotion and you will not regret it" (Bulletin analyst E. A Pierce, "New York Herald Tribune", October 30, 1929). "There are intelligent people who are now buying stocks … Unless there is a panic, and no one seriously believes in it, stocks will not fall down" (Financial Analyst R. McNeil, October 1929).
Optimism and pessimism as well as fear and bravado coexisted in different people and even in each person they interchanged depending on the situation. The behavior of people became emotional, irrational. And at the same time it was different. But gradually pessimism won. If we burn most of the hormones, the body starts to save them, forcing people to reduce activity. The mental state also changes.
Of course, the victory of pessimism resulted in increased number of market participants. With the growing number of participants in the determination of behavior, he psychology of crowds starts dominating, increasing the role of suggestion and unconscious components of the collective psyche. Mood hesitations during this period often lead to madness even those people who are most prone to mental disorders.
But if the voice of reason could be deafened, then the feast during the plague could continue. And what could deafen the reasonable view of the state of the market? When there is a lot of serotonin and adrenaline in blood, the reasonable view is unlikely. When hormones are missing, the blues will come itself. When hormones are normal, just thinking often helps, although sometimes psychotherapist is useful.
We have to remind that in 1921 Saturn and Jupiter were in conjunction. It was the intense activity that American literature called the "Roaring Twenties." Emotionally eclipsed mind started to dominate, although there were almost no sunspots (Wolf number in 1921 was 26, in 1922 – 14, 1923 – 6). Young and old played on stock exchanges. Of the 120 million Americans 30 million played on the stock exchanges and a half million had accounts in brokerage companies. As it often happens while playing or gambling, the most part of what you have is to be lost, and therefore money was borrowed. Newspapers wrote about winning in the system of interpersonal relations and they were talking about them more often as well. The hormones were demanded. But those who were forced to drown fear turned to be psychopaths – it was the included psychological mechanism of repression. So, human psyche was often in such situations. People just did not see and did not want to see the reality. They were waiting for money, big money.
It was during those years when the excessive optimism that led to that desire to get rich most evolved in the confidence that it could be easily done with the help of speculation. Under this need the update of the current financial and organizational structure was required. But then the solar activity started growing. In 1927 Wolf number equaled 69, in 1928 – 78, and in December 1929 it reached 108. Physiology of people had become different, and the habit of playing at the market remained.
Crash unfolded in strict accordance with the increase in solar activity and behavior patterns of hysteroid accentuations.
In June 1929 solar activity began to decline: Wolf number in June was 72, in July – 70, in August – 66, in September – 34, so the solar activity fell twice. Market participants cheered. Optimism began to grow. But the subsequent increase in solar activity again brought confusion in the head: October – 54, November – 81, December – 108. Besides, the planets were in such position that rocked people's minds both in the direction of positive and negative emotions. Historical optimism and cosmic events in 1921 began to pass. Jupiter and Saturn began