Convention Center Follies. Heywood T. Sanders
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of its growth in population, corporate presence, and tourism is a natural location for a dedicated, high-quality convention facility to serve as the primary center for the region.”9
Johnson Consulting returned to Rockford, with a follow-up study dated January 7, 2010, for a new downtown convention center and hotel. And despite the global economic turmoil of 2008 and 2009 and the dramatic downturn in travel and hotel demand, Johnson once again offered an upbeat account of the performance of the convention and tradeshow industry and its prospects for the future. A preamble to the formal report offering answers to “frequently asked questions” brought the finding that “there is a nationwide demand for meeting and conference space that is not being met .…This trend will continue as the economy rebounds and business travel increases.” Johnson proffered the reassurance that “Virtually all categories of meeting activities have experienced rapid worldwide growth since the early 1970s.” The body of the report contained the finding that “In recent years, the growth rate in demand for exhibition space has been exceeding the rate of increase in the supply of exhibition space.” That supported Johnson’s central conclusion for Rockford’s leaders: “Through sustained and thoughtful initiatives and investment in projects such as a new convention/conference center and hotel, downtown Rockford can have a revitalized identity and re-emerge as an economic center and resource for the community.” And a year later, in a February 2011 report for Clemson, South Carolina, Johnson could observe, “Virtually all categories of meeting activities have experienced rapid worldwide growth since the early 1970s,” and offer the conclusion that “Clemson is well suited to participate in the convention, conference, and meetings sector, given that it is home to Clemson University.”10
Other consultants also tied their recommendations that cities add more convention center space to the presumed growth of the convention industry, employing much the same arguments and just the same sources of data Johnson Consulting relied on.
Assessing the state of convention and tradeshow demand for the city of Anaheim in 1995, the consultants at Coopers & Lybrand, including Craig Skiem and John Kaatz, also turned to Tradeshow Week’s annual report on the industry’s largest events, the Tradeshow Week “200.” They told Anaheim officials that “Following a period of slow growth in 1991–92 brought on by a recession and the Gulf War, the growth rate in the trade show industry rebounded in 1993.” The consultants concluded, “This trend is expected to continue, with industry growth ranging from three to five percent annually over the next five years.” That growth, and increasing competition from expanding centers in Los Angeles, Chicago, New York, Dallas, and New Orleans, meant Anaheim’s own expansion “must be seriously considered.”11
Two years later, in 1997, the convention center consultants at Coopers & Lybrand justified an expansion of New York’s Javits Center with another analysis of Tradeshow Week’s “200.” They argued, “Following a period of relatively slow growth in 1991 and 1992, brought on by a recession and the Gulf War, the growth rate in the trade show industry rebounded in 1993 and has been steadily increasing each year since.” The Coopers consultants added, “Preliminary estimates for 1996 through 1999 indicate continued steady annual growth in attendance, exhibiting companies and space requirements of between three and five percent which are anticipated to continue into the twenty-first century.” And with that assumption of growth, they concluded that an expanded Javits Center represented a “significant opportunity” for New York.12
With the demise of Coopers & Lybrand in 1998, the principals of the convention center consulting practice, including Craig Skiem and John Kaatz, formed a new firm, Conventions, Sports and Leisure International. The new CSL firm produced a market analysis for the New Orleans Morial Convention Center in 1999 that again turned to the Tradeshow Week “200” as an index of demand. For the CSL analysts, those data indicated that “Since 1990, the largest 200 trade shows have experienced a steady growth in terms of net square feet of paid exhibit space and attendance.” With that historical pattern and “Industry projections [that] forecast future growth at two to four percent annually as the importance of face-to-face business interaction continues to position the industry as recession resistant,” the CSL report called for an expansion of 500,000 to 600,000 square feet of exhibit space “needed to support the long-term demand for the space in New Orleans … [to] target added multiple events in the 200,000 to 600,000 gross square foot range.”13
The CSL firm continued to rely upon Tradeshow Week data, albeit almost entirely in terms of year-to-year percent changes and index values, in describing the state of the convention center market, even as industry performance changed in 2001 and after. For the Pennsylvania Convention Center Authority in a January 2003 report, CSL argued, “Until recent trends, the square footage, number of exhibitors and attendance levels of the convention, tradeshow and meetings market have continually grown since 1984, with the exception of a brief two-year period in the early 1990s.” And although “Recent events and economic conditions have resulted in significant decreases in attendance and space use in many markets throughout the country,” they could confidently predict an industry “rebound over the next 12 to 24 months.”14
The CSL consultants also provided their upbeat view of the future of the convention and tradeshow industry to a broader audience of local officials. CSL principal Bill Krueger’s May 2007 presentation at the International Economic Development Council’s “If You Build It, Will They Come?” conference, “Is the Convention and Conference Center Market Saturated?,” answered with a series of slides titled “The Recovery of the Biggest …” and “Decades of Growth for the Largest …,” illustrating a “Growth Index” of space use, exhibitors, and attendance. And a CSL analysis of the prospects for a new convention center in Jackson, Michigan, in October 2007 included the same chart that Krueger’s presentation had titled “Decades of Growth for the Largest….” For the Jackson report, the graph was now titled “Tradeshow 200—Convention & Tradeshow Industry Growth,” clearly referring to the source of its data, Tradeshow Week’s annual summary of space use, exhibitor, and attendance indices for the “200” largest convention and tradeshow events. “Exhibit IV-4” showed attendance steadily growing from 1987 (value of 100) to 2000, albeit flat in 1990–1991. Growth appeared to resume in 2003, hitting an index value of about 156 in 2005 and 162 in 2006—both above the previous peak of 155 for 2000.15
CSL provided an optimistic assessment of the state of the convention industry and its future for the Greater Jackson Chamber of Commerce, noting, “The most recent industry data suggests [sic] that the nationwide convention and tradeshow industry is in the midst of a renewed expansion, with demand levels generally recovering beyond pre-9/11 levels.” There was still a cautionary note: “While it is believed that challenges have and will continue to exist in certain localized markets, every community and destination is unique and application of blanket industry-wide, macro assessments of supply and demand phenomena are often ill-advised.” “Destination appeal” mattered, and “facilities located in destinations with weak appeal and/or deficient visitor amenities more often struggle or underperform industry averages.” But Jackson apparently had sufficient appeal, as CSL stated: “A new Jackson convention center, as envisioned, would act as an economic generator and a public resource for the local community, hosting conventions, conferences, tradeshows, public/consumer shows, meetings and other events of both a non-local and local nature.”16
When CSL reported on the market feasibility of a new convention center in Oklahoma City to the Greater Oklahoma City Chamber of Commerce in March 2009, the national economy and the convention industry had changed in dramatic fashion. But the consultants still relied on Tradeshow Week’s figures on the annual performance of the “200” largest events (including exhibit space and attendance), again shown as a “growth index” to demonstrate the “short-lived” impact of 9-11, with growth having “picked up” starting in 2002 and “continuing through 2007.” After noting the current conditions “negatively impacting” the convention and tradeshow business, the report argued that convention growth would parallel GNP change, and that industry change “will have to be monitored over the coming months and years.” But that need to monitor convention demand did not have much impact on CSL’s recommendation that Oklahoma City add 200,000 square feet of exhibit space, effectively tripling