Facing the Anthropocene. Ian Angus
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specific causes of past climate chaos are unlikely to repeat, so the pattern of change will certainly be different. But the most significant difference between then and now is the unprecedented impact of human activity in the past sixty years—and that makes it very likely, as a team headed by the noted U.S. biologist Anthony D. Barnosky concluded, that Earth is “approaching a state shift.”
Comparison of the present extent of planetary change with that characterizing past global-scale state shifts, and the enormous global forcings we continue to exert, suggests that another global-scale state shift is highly plausible within decades to centuries, if it has not already been initiated.23
If that occurs, the relative stability of the Holocene could be replaced by a new and unprecedented climate state, unlike anything any human society has experienced. And, as geoscientist Richard B. Alley points out, the transition is likely to be fast:
Large, abrupt climate changes have repeatedly affected much or all of the earth, locally reaching as much as 10°C change in 10 years. Available evidence suggests that abrupt climate changes are not only possible but likely in the future, potentially with large impacts on ecosystems and societies….
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