Active Investing in the Age of Disruption. Evan L. Jones
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Table of Contents
1 COVER
4 PREFACE
5 PART I: MARKET ENVIRONMENT: THE 2010S AND 2020S CHAPTER 1: CHALLENGES TO ACTIVE INVESTING Active investing alpha has been falling Self-reinforcing cycle driving poor performance Why do these forces pressure investment decisions? Key investment tenets CHAPTER 2: GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION Unprecedented global central bank intervention Fundamental investing overwhelmed by central bank intervention Low rates and the US consumer CHAPTER 3: ACCELERATED PACE OF TECHNOLOGY = DISRUPTION Innovation adoption tipping point Innovation and Financial Capital Outperformance potential with unprofitable but disruptive companies? Private markets overheating? Contrarianism and paradigm shifts CHAPTER 4: PASSIVE INVESTING Factor investing How far can passive investing go? Are the losers quitting the game? Financial product creation and passive alternatives CHAPTER 5: THE 2020S Economic drivers of the 2020s Continuation of technology-driven disruption American dream Populism The biggest downside risk: Loss of faith in central banks Consequences for active investing Is value investing dead?
6
PART II: CREATING ALPHA
CHAPTER 6: A COHESIVE STRATEGY
Aligning pieces of the puzzle
Benchmarks and security selection universes that are too narrow or broad
Diversification and performance goals
Assets under management (AUM) relationship to strategy
Matching the time horizon of the strategy to the investor base
Fees in relation to the strategy return potential
Shorting and your strategy
Academic analysis and investment reality
Firm incentives
Executing the strategy
CHAPTER 7: INVESTMENT PROCESS
Process evolves; it is not stagnant
Functions served by process
Documenting and memory
Investment thesis
Deep work: Trying to avoid the noise
Channel checks
Management meetings
Systems and technology
CHAPTER 8: SECURITY SELECTION
Superior business models
Idea generation: Top down to narrow the universe
Timing business cycles
Roll-up acquisition strategy
Other types of companies to be wary of
What to look for in a company: Sales growth
What to look for in a company: Operating margins
What to look for in a company: Market power sustainability
Management teams
Being contrarian and time horizon
CHAPTER 9: VALUATION
Importance of valuation in fundamental versus value investing
Fundamental investing: Big picture
Owner's yield
Free cash flow as an important metric
Company balance sheet leverage
Price