Мегапроекты и риски. Анатомия амбиций. Нильс Брузелиус
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Regional Development, 1973; Merewitz, “Cost Overruns in Public Works”, in William A. Niskanen, Arnold C. Harberger, Robert H. Haveman, Ralph Turvey and Richard Zeckhauser, eds., Benefit-Cost and Policy Analysis, Chicago: Aldine Publishers, 1973, reprint no. 114, Berkeley: Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University of California, 1973). По причинам, приведенным ранее, исследование Меревитса не может считаться достаточно крупным для изучения транспортной инфраструктуры, и его статистическое значение неясно. (Flyvbjerg, Skamris Holm and Buhl, “Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?”). Несмотря на недостатки, подход, предпринятый Меревитсом, был инновационным для своего времени и, в принципе, указал верное направление анализа перерасхода средств в проектах общественных сооружений.
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Основные источники: Merewitz, Urban Rapid Transit Projects; Hall, “Great Planning Disasters Revisited”; World Bank, Economic Analysis of Projects: Towards a Results-Oriented Approach to Evaluation, ECON Report (Washington, DC: forthcoming); R. M. Fraser, “Compensation for Extra Preliminary and General (P & G) Costs Arising from Delays, Variations and Disruptions: The Palmiet Pumped Storage Scheme”, Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, том 5, № 3, 1990; M. M. Dlakwa and M. F. Culpin, “Reasons for Overrun in Public Sector Construction Projects in Nigeria”, International Journal of Project Management, том 8, № 4, 1990; Morris and Hough, The Anatomy of Major Projects: A Study of the Reality of Project Management; David Arditi, Guzin Tarim Akan and San Gurdamar, “Cost Overruns in Public Projects”, International Journal of Project Management, том 3, № 4, 1985; Henry T. Canaday, Construction Cost Overruns in Electric Utilities: Some Trends and Implications, Occasional Paper no. 3 (Columbus: National Regulatory Research Institute, Ohio State University, November 1980); P. D. Henderson, “Two British Errors: Their Probable Size and Some Possible Lessons”, Oxford Economic Papers, том 29, № 2, июль 1977 г.; Coleman Blake, David Cox and Willard Fraize, Analysis of Projected Vs. Actual Costs for Nuclear and Coal-Fired Power Plants, Prepared for the United States Energy Research and Development Administration (McLean, VI: Mitre Corporation, 1976); Department of Energy Study Group (DOE), North Sea Costs Escalation Study, Energy Paper no. 8 (London: DOE, 31 December 1975); Maynard M. Hufschmidt and Jacques Gerin, “Systematic Errors in Cost Estimates for Public Investment Projects”, in Julius Margolis, ed., The Analysis of Public Output (New York: Columbia University Press, 1970); J. M. Healey, “Errors in Project Cost Estimates”, Indian Economic Journal, том 12, № 1, июль-сентябрь 1964 г.
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Hall, “Great Planning Disasters Revisited”, с. 3.
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Robert Summers, “Cost Estimates as Predictors of Actual Costs: A Statistical Study of Military Developments”, in Thomas Marschak, Thomas K. Glennan and Robert Summers, eds., Strategy for R&D: Studies in the Microeconomics of Development (Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1967), с. 148.
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Major Projects Association, Beyond 2000: A Source Book for Major Projects, с. 165.
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Больше примеров добросовестной практики в отношении оценки расходов и управления, см.: World Bank, World Development Report 1994: Infrastructure for Development (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994). См. также André Blanc, Christian Brossier, Christian Bernardini and Michel Gerard: Rapport de la Mission sur la Projet de TGV-Est Européen, Inspection Général des Finances et Conseil Générale des Pont et Chausées, Paris, июль 1996 г.