Demographic Dynamics and Development. Yves Charbit
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Alfred Sauvy, founder of the National Institute of Demographic Studies, and by anthropologist Georges Balandier, professor at Sorbonne University (Balandier 1956). In their mind, the issue was not only demographic, it was also economic and political, since compared to the capitalist world and the Soviet blocks, all the poor countries made up a third group. It is, therefore, hardly surprising that from the 1960s onwards a considerable effort was made, since it was absolutely necessary to keep the population growth of poor countries under control. Private foundations (Population Council, Rockefeller Foundation), non-profit organizations (International Planned Parenthood Federation, Mary Stopes International, etc.), international institutions (the United Nations Population Fund), and later the World Bank all joined forces in order to achieve this. The methods used were generally incentive-based, sometimes coercive with total disregard of human rights, especially in the case of abortion and of male/female sterilization. The pressure exerted by Western countries soon aroused strong opposition. In Bucharest in 1974, during the first World Population Conference, an Action Plan was drawn up with the aim of reducing the growth rate in world population. Since the population of rich countries grew slowly, it was clear that this plan involved considerable effort on the part of developing countries to control their population growth, and consequently their fertility. This was strongly opposed by two countries, Algeria and Argentina, which argued the opposite: the problem was not too many children but was instead underdevelopment. One statement was particularly successful: “The best contraceptive is development”.
As for the concept of the Third World, it is clear that it reflected the ideology of the Cold War and the rivalry between capitalism and communism. Furthermore, this was translated into the formation of a group of non-aligned countries during the Bandung conference in 1955. While the concept was in keeping with the times, it had negative effects on research because of its globalizing nature: the term Third World, coined to describe Asia, Latin America and Africa, meant that no distinctions were made between them. And yet, how can we claim that behavior and cultural, social and economic contexts are the same in Peru, Indonesia or Namibia? To understand the reasons for high fertility in these three countries, it is necessary to contextualize research. The theory of modernization was proposed in 1953 by an American demographer, Frank Notestein, a major figure of the Population Council in New York. Typical of the dominant ideology of the time, it described a development model inspired by the rich countries: the reduction in fertility presupposed the existence of urban, educated women and couples, employed in the formal sector who would use modern contraception “rationally” to maintain or even improve their standard of living, having only a few children. Shortly after in 1960, sociologist William Goode published a book which affirmed that the Western model of the monogamous nuclear family would triumph worldwide. However, in 1974, anthropologist David Mandelbaum showed that in India, for example, the economic, social and cultural logics hardly went in the direction predicted by Goode.
The second observation concerns the evolution of the social stakeholders involved since the times of Malthus. The stark contrast between the demographic behavior of the bourgeoisie and the workers, highlighted during the 19th century in European countries, was replaced by that of rich Western and poorer countries in the period following the Second World War. But the evolution of the above-mentioned economic growth rates leads us to propose another analysis grid. Indeed, the gaps in wealth, as well as differences in consumption patterns and access to health or education between developed and developing countries, are dramatic. However, as we saw at the beginning of this introductory chapter, even this dichotomy should be rejected because of the ever-widening gap between the countries where population growth rates are high (mainly certain regions in Africa and Asia) and countries where growth is under control.
I.4. Outine of the book
After this brief general introduction, the dominant theory among demographers, the demographic transition, is presented (Chapter 1). The following two chapters focus on the developmental consequences of changes in age structures caused by the demographic transition. Chapter 2 is devoted to one of its avatars, the demographic dividend. Likewise, the National Transfer Accounts methodology (Chapter 3) makes it possible to study intra-family transfers between generations and, as such, is part of the reflection on structural changes related to age. Fertility and nuptiality (Chapter 4) determine population dynamics. Particular attention is given to one of the variables that regulate fertility: contraception (Chapter 5). The other major driver of the dynamics is mortality. In a book that is centered on the relationship between population and development, morbidity and therefore health could not be neglected (Chapter 6). Although the demography of developing countries is the focus of this book, it was important to include an in-depth analysis of the situation in Europe, from the 16th to 20th century (Chapter 7). This choice is clearly justified by the fact that at the beginning of that period, Europe was truly underdeveloped. A historical approach is therefore useful to help better understand the economic, social, cultural and political dynamics at work – today and in the past – in migration with in developing countries. As for current migration, Chapter 8 provides a broad overview of migration flows from countries of origin and migration stocks residing in immigration countries where employment prospects are better. While developing countries are associated with the idea that they suffer from the burden of young populations that must be fed, cared for, educated and soon to be employed, it seems paradoxical to raise the question of their aging (Chapter 9). In fact, with an undeniable decline in fertility, developing countries will in turn enter into an aging process. But, while the management of old age is largely socialized, the elderly in Asia, Latin America and even more in Africa will have to be economically supported by their children. Table I.3 summarizes the main contributions of the chapters.
To conclude this introduction, we should mention that in general the chapters present the problem, the hypotheses retained and the sources used. A “general” section provides useful statistical or demographic data. Where appropriate, the following geographical levels are distinguished: global, continental, some of the main sub-regions of the three continents, and countries are classified according to level of development (developed countries, developing countries and least developed countries). Finally, the chapters include one or more in-depth case studies that focus on a country, sub-region or a particularly important scientific sub-topic (Table I.3).
Table I.3. Chapter titles and in-depth case studies
| Chapter title | Case study |
| Introduction: Demographic Dynamics (Charbit) | Malthus and development |
| 1. The Demographic Transition (Cosio Zavala) | Latin America and the Caribbean |
| 2. Demographic Dividend and Dependency Ratios (Turbat) | Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 3. From the Demographic Dividend to Generational Economics (Dramani) | Dividend profiles in Africa |
| 4. Fertility and Nuptiality (Charbit) | Precocious nuptiality |
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5. Contraception and Reproductive Rights (Dasgupta)
|