Planning vs. Forecasting?

      In a business plan, companies will generally make a «forecast» of sales revenue on a month-by-month basis for the next few years. How can a company say that in May of next year it will generate sales of $2.3 million from Product A? Is this a guess?

      If a company says it «plans» to achieve sales of $2.3 million, it is implied that there are specific activities that have been defined that will lead to this target. To this end, the distribution channels for the product must be defined. Pricing assumptions have to be tested and adjusted. Advertising budgets and schedules must be worked out. Most importantly, the resources required to achieve the desired sales level must be calculated. How many salespersons will be needed? What level of technical support is necessary?

      The 4 Ps of Marketing or the Marketing «Mix»

      The 4 Ps of marketing are Product, Price, Place, and Promotion. The 4 Ps are your marketing «mix». You control the 4Ps. They are your «independent» variables. The dependent variable is sales volume. This is the output that you get by defining the inputs – i.e. the 4 Ps. How do you choose this mix? That is the challenge! These variables are all interdependent. The task is to set these variables in such a way so that sales will take place. You cannot «make» a customer pull out her credit card, but you can certainly help her in coming to a decision by setting the «right» price, the retail outlet, the level of advertising and even product attributes such as color or perceived quality. You control everything but the customer herself.

      In defining your marketing mix it is also necessary to take into account your competitor’s mix as well as your overall corporate objectives. The idea is to come up with a mix that will clearly differentiate your products from those of your competitors while considering your corporate goals. For example, the mission of your company may be to offer a high-end luxury product since your competitors are addressing the mass market and this is consistent with your company’s goal of owning the market for top-of-the-line products of this category.

      Product

      What is it that you are selling? A good marketing manager will be particularly interested in knowing what «need» it addresses? Engineers would think in terms of its functional specifications and marketing people would think more in terms of its features and benefits. Manufacturing people will be thinking about how to make it and along with the accounting group they will be wondering what it costs to make (or buy). Hopefully, they won’t be wondering and will defer instead to rigorous analysis.

      Denny Doyle, consultant and founder of Digital Equipment Canada, always told me that the product is what you trade for cash. In other words, your customers want your product and you want their cash and all you do in business is trade those two items.

      Price

      What is price? The answer may not be as obvious as one may think. Price is not just the sticker price or the price invoiced. It goes deeper. For example, what about terms? Can you have 30 days to pay for a purchase or as we often hear on radio commercials for household furniture, «nothing down, no interest, low monthly payments starting next year!»? A good example of clever pricing was Xerox’s decision to «loan» customers the Xerox 914 and to charge them only $.05 per copy.

      As a product moves through the distribution channels, e.g. from manufacturer to distributor to dealer to customer, there are prices set along the way. The manufacturer’s selling price to the distributor becomes the distributor’s cost. Obviously, it is important to understand pricing and margins along the distribution path. Ultimately, the price to the consumer must be competitive. Who sets this price? Does the manufacturer or the dealer have the final say? Can the manufacturer in any way control the price of his product when it hits the street? Most importantly, can the manufacturer make (or sub-contract) the product for a cost to him that allows him to meet his profit objectives given the retail price target?

      How do you price a very innovative, one-of-a-kind product? Are you pricing too low and leaving money on the table? Are you pricing yourself out of the market? Presently, there is strong demand for Harley-Davidson motorcycles and delivery times are running over six months. Since only the Harley company makes a Harley, should it raise prices and take advantage of the strong demand? If demand for your product is lagging, should you drop price – especially if the product life cycle has peaked?

      There are various pricing strategies. For example, markup pricing is the setting of a price based on one’s cost. This may be appropriate when reselling a product used in providing a service. For example, an auto mechanic may mark up her cost of auto parts by 50%. This may be a simple way for her to determine selling price and from her experience this is in line with what other mechanics are doing.

      Another pricing strategy is that of market «skimming». You start with fairly high prices (especially in the absence of competition) and you lower your prices over time as you start to keep up with the demand or as competition begins to move in.

      For so-called commodity products, a going-rate pricing approach is often followed. If you are selling gasoline to motorists, it would be very difficult to charge a price per liter which is noticeably different from that charged by gas stations nearby, unless you’re the only station on a 200 km stretch of desert highway.

      Currency is another important aspect for technology companies to consider. Because the markets for technology-based products are usually global, you should price your products in U.S. dollars. You might even consider pricing on an FOB (Free-on-Board) Destination basis. When I was selling video terminals in Germany in the 1970s, I priced in Deutschmarks, FOB Frankfurt. This meant that I was taking more risk with respect to currency fluctuations, freight and insurance charges, but by consolidating large volumes to Frankfurt, I was able to greatly reduce air freight expenses thereby offering a competitive price to my distributors.

      Place (i.e. distribution)

      Placement of the product is crucial. There are often many channels, which a product can take in going from your shop to the customer. Defining a channel strategy is not simply an arbitrary matter. Bear in mind that all middlemen along the way are in partnership with you to sell something to the end-user. Therefore, your product and its other 3 Ps must be such that various resellers in your channel have their needs (e.g. margin objectives, volumes) met.

      There is also the question of control. When AES Data launched the world’s first word processor in the early 1970s, it signed up the Lanier company in the USA to handle U.S. sales. However, Lanier was selling the AES product under its own label, and when Lanier decided to switch to another supplier of word processors (as competition emerged), AES had little control over its U.S. customers. To gain a foothold in the U.S. market, it had to start from the beginning in a market which it created! Even if Lanier sold the AES products under the AES name, the channel would still be owned by Lanier in that Lanier had its own loyal customer base along with sales and service offices to support this customer base.

      A good practical way to determine appropriate channels for your product would be to start at the point of final purchase. Who is the final consumer or user of your product? Where does that person look when buying your type of product? Once the various channels have been identified, it is easier to determine which ones make the most sense or which ones offer the path of least resistance.

      Promotion

      Promotion is that term which many people confuse with the word «marketing». But promotion is just one of the four Ps and a good «marketer» is not just a good promoter but also a good planner and a good listener.

      Promotion can take many forms: advertising in various media, events, press releases, trade shows, brochures, flyers, and Internet sites to name a few. Promotion means creating awareness although awareness is just the beginning. Good promotion compels the