Eyes Wide Open: How to Make Smart Decisions in a Confusing World. Noreena Hertz
Читать онлайн книгу.
Hoping to keep its edge on the market, it had piled $40 billion into research, secretly developing an iPhone-style device – complete with a colour touchscreen, maps, online shopping, the lot – some seven years earlier. But the product never hit the shelves. In spite of all the research (which ended up generating about $6 billion-worth of patents), Nokia decided to stick with what it knew: good, solid, reliable mobile phones. As a former employee working in the development team at the time said of that decision, ‘Management did the usual. They killed it.’49 In fact, when the iPhone was introduced, Nokia engineers sneered at the Apple device’s inability to pass their ‘drop test’, where a phone is dropped onto concrete from a five-foot height.50
They believed that the past could provide a reliable guide to the future, but as we now know, it didn’t. In the five years since the iPhone was introduced, Nokia has lost 90 per cent of its market value.51 Meanwhile, Apple has sold over a quarter of a billion iPhones.52 Indeed, in August 2012, at the same time as Nokia’s bonds were rated as worse than ‘junk’, Apple’s share price peaked at $664.74, making it the most valuable company in history, with the iPhone generating 55 per cent of that value.53
What can we learn from these two stories to help us with decision-making? That there is no such thing as a trend? Clearly not that – just ask the erotic fiction writers now bringing home the bacon thanks to E.L. James. Or those who’ve made their millions off the back of the Twilight franchise.
Never to make a musical? Not that either, although with a twinkle in his eye Dick Zanuck joked with me that that was the lesson he’d learnt.
How about that failure is the death knell for future success? Not necessarily. Zanuck went on to make many more blockbusters and critically acclaimed movies. And there are a number of examples of entrepreneurs who’ve gone on to make fortunes after losing it all.54
But what we can take away is this: do not get so attached to past successes or failures that they inhibit your ability to think cogently, and to assess the present challenges with an open and objective mind.
Be acutely aware that the interplay between our environment and its outcomes is ever-changing.
Understand that all trends will come to an end at some point.
Consider the possibility that the same ingredients at another time may not make a tasty cake or a hit movie.
Don’t allow success to breed either arrogance or complacency.
And if you get things wrong, remember the imperative to learn from your mistakes.
That’s what Dick Zanuck did. He realised that he had based his decisions too firmly on past experiences, assuming that what was right yesterday would be just as successful tomorrow. It is testament to both his creative energy and his willingness to engage in introspection that he came back from these harsh experiences to produce some of the greatest movies of all time.
The Truth about Harry
Being stuck in the past can cause other problems too – a fog of assumptions based on past experiences can obscure the new or the innovative.
This is something that a dozen of the most prestigious British and American publishing houses must now realise.55
When a 223-page manuscript of around 90,000 words from an unknown female author landed on their desks back in 1996 they quickly turned it down for a number of understandable but misconceived reasons. The book was too long for kids these days – 50,000 words longer than the average children’s novel at the time.56 Reading by boys was declining, especially of books by women and those light on dialogue. Moreover, this was a straight-on, full-blown fantasy, not a book about the kinds of serious issues such as bullying or broken families that were currently in vogue. It was hard to think of a successful children’s fantasy book in recent times.
Penguin, one of Britain’s most prestigious publishers, flatly rejected the manuscript. At Transworld it languished in the in-tray of somebody who was off sick.57 Indeed, twelve of the top British and American publishers turned it down.58
It took a publisher new to the game, working in a children’s division just a couple of years old, with no past to be stuck in and a belief that a story with emotional resonance would always find an audience, to take the plunge.
Barry Cunningham, a former marketing man and one-time giant puffin (at exhibitions for Penguin’s children’s books imprint, Puffin, Barry, as Marketing Director, would walk around thus costumed), read all 223 pages. ‘The skies didn’t part and lightning didn’t come down or anything,’ he recounted as we sat in the basement of the nineteenth-century Savile Club, the Mayfair haunt previously frequented by Kipling, Hardy, Yeats and other literary greats, me sipping tea, he his trademark Coca-Cola.
Cunningham simply thought that the manuscript was ‘really engaging’. He negotiated with the author’s agent ‘for about five minutes, because he didn’t want very much money and I didn’t have very much money’, and bought the first two books in the series for the princely sum of £2,000.
As he said to me, ‘The rest is history.’ And it sure was.
The author, a first-time writer by the name of Joanna Rowling, who was ‘so nervous’ the first time Barry spoke to her that she ‘couldn’t really talk’, was delighted to get the firm offer, especially after so many rejections. And Barry Cunningham, of course, was also delighted. The seven Harry Potter books went on to sell over 450 million copies worldwide, have been translated into more than seventy languages, and spawned a movie franchise worth over $4.5 billion.
Rudyard Kipling was right to caution us to treat both triumph and disaster as ‘imposters’. Yet we’re all too prone to letting failure and success become our only guiding beacons. What this means is that not only do we risk ignoring cues that things may be changing around us, but also deny ourselves the possibility of contemplating futures, trajectories and possibilities that are different from what has come before.
How to See with Eyes Wide Open
To make smart decisions we need the right information to guide us. That is a given.
This means being aware of how instinctively tunnel-visioned we can be, of how some information glitters much more brightly than others – some of which may well turn out to be fool’s gold.
It means becoming more conscious of the way we are drawn to what’s most familiar or most obvious, or closest to what we want to hear. Of how little attention we pay to what we don’t want to know. Of just how caught up in our past we can be, and how this can disable our ability to process the present or imagine the future.
Being aware is a start. But there’s more that we can do to ensure we see with eyes wide open.
One thing we can do is to give ourselves more time – time both to gather the right information, and to consider it. I know that for many of us time feels like a luxury we just don’t have any more. But as Dr Alter makes explicit, ‘In order to think well, especially in hectic circumstances [and he’s talking about decisions made by doctors in the ER here], you need to slow things down to avoid making cognitive errors.’59
You need time to ask yourself what you may not have thought about, time to consider alternatives, time for your eyes to dart around the picture.
Time pressures encourage tunnel or distorted vision, while the best ideas often emerge after a reflective pause.