Finding the right estimate for a project can be difficult, especially if there are unknowns.

      The roof deck on my South Philadelphia row home has been an issue for us from day one. Every time it rains and the water comes at the house at a very specific angle, we’ll get water in the room below. We’ve had several contractors and roofers visit our house to fix the issue, and every time we’re left with a description of work and an estimate for what it will cost, we’re completely baffled. One roofer says he’ll seal the roof for $500, and it will last us for “a few years” before it needs to be done again, while the next contractor comes in and says “we need to rip it all up and start over” to “find out what’s underneath.” His estimate starts with a $350 fee to do the demolition, but he doesn’t know what he’ll charge after that. These are obviously two very different approaches to the same issue with varying costs.

      The gaps in approach and cost (or unknown costs) leave us wondering what the best approach is. One roofer can give us a solid estimate because he knows what he’ll do and how much of his time and materials it will take to get it done. The other wants to find the bigger problem and isn’t comfortable even giving a price range beyond the first set of labor needed to find the problem.

      So, if we do decide to rip it up, what will happen if they find something else to fix? The house is a money pit, and we don’t want to keep spending money, but it needs to be fixed. We’re left questioning the budget and the timeline, but we know we need to do what’s best.

      • • •

      This is a classic case of estimation confusion, and it happens all over the place. The biggest issue is that when we hear “estimate,” we suddenly come up with a concrete number or date. But it’s just an estimate, which means the number is a best guess (and will very likely change). This happens just as much on digital projects as it does with construction projects, and that’s because we’re humans and just can’t answer unknowns.

Set the Stage for Solid Estimates

      No matter what the type, size, or budget of a project is, estimating can be a daunting task. Every project request comes with a set of unknowns, or a gray area that makes a team or individual nervous about expectations concerning cost, timelines, and level of effort. Because the gray area changes from project to project, there is no simple way of saying, “It always takes us this long to do this thing” without qualifying it with some additional factors (“with these people, on this project, in this place, at this time, etc.”). It’s just not possible to build one solid estimate without doing some investigation of the work at hand. In order to create a workable estimate, you need to know your team, deliverables, tasks, and process like the back of your hand. You also have to be comfortable asking questions to figure out the things that you (and maybe even your potential client or customer) do not know.

      You have to be very comfortable with knowing that there are unknowns on your project that might not become apparent until you’re really deep in things. At the same time, you must be very confident about the things that you do know, because those things will help you get to the unknowns at the right time—or avoid them with some additional work. A combination of knowing and not knowing details of your project will give you the confidence to come up with an estimate for your project that is workable and possibly even flexible.

       NOTE NEVER FORGET

      This is the Merriam-Webster definition of estimate. Keep it on hand for when you have to remind someone when your estimate goes off track (because, yes, it most likely will).

      ESTIMATE transitive verb

      a : to judge tentatively or approximately the value, worth, or significance of

      b : to determine roughly the size, extent, or nature of

      c : to produce a statement of the approximate cost of

       Why Estimate?

      While building digital products is not the same as building a roof,