The Fifth Season. Kerry B Collison
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he would suggest to the World Bank officers later in the week, while considering how he could personally benefit from the current situation.
* * * *
United States of America – Washington,
January 1998
The President leaned forward and placed both hands dominantly on the historic table as he glared at his advisers. When would they ever get it right?
‘George Bush had the perfect opportunity Mr. President, and he blew it.’ The speaker turned to others in the room knowing that the general consensus supported his position. ‘We had Saddam by the balls, but let him get away. We should have gone all the way and destroyed anything that even resembled a factory or warehouse while we still had world opinion on our side.’ The Secretary of State then sighed heavily, more out of frustration than tiredness, and shook his head.
‘Sanctions?’ the President asked, looking at no one in particular.
‘The Press believes that we should reconsider some aspects of these, Mr.
President,’ It was Dean J. Scott, the President’s chief of staff who offered this opinion. Although the Middle East, with its complicated political, ethnic and religious rivalries had continued to dominate American foreign policy for more than half a century, it was the President’s popularity which had prompted Scott to suggest that, by removing sanctions which directly affected the flow of medical and other humanitarian supplies, the Press would look more favorably on the current Administration. The President’s sexual indiscretions continued to consume an excessive amount of Oval Office time and he was the one responsible for taking most of the heat out of the media.
‘If anything, we should squeeze him even more,’ Admiral Colin Brown, insisted. The Joint Chiefs were impatient for another action against Saddam to field test new technology under actual combat conditions.
‘These sanctions are hurting him seriously, but not enough to bring him down.’ The Defense Secretary took control of the conversation. He too believed that President Bush had erred by not finishing what he had started. ‘His organized mass rallies are starting to work for him, with human rights activists screaming bloody murder about the interrupted flow of medical supplies. If we don’t act soon, public opinion might prevent us taking any pre-emptive action against Baghdad this time.’
‘How much time do we have?’ The President asked. Somewhere in the back of his mind he remembered having been told but, with the incredible pressure he had been under lately he just could not recall the information.
He resisted thinking about the Press, and how they continued to paint him as a sexual predator.
‘Six, perhaps even eight months Mr. President,’ the Defense Intelligence Director stated. ‘We must assume that he has successfully hidden some of the completed stages within the palace grounds. Also, we still have not been able to verify delivery of the current Chinese shipments.’ Those present were all painfully aware of China’s role in the destabilization of the entire region running from its own borders, across Pakistan, Afghanistan and into the powerful oil economies of Iran and Iraq.
This was of major concern to all her neighbors. China’s incredible industrial growth over the preceding ten years had seen the country become a net importer of oil, most of which originated from Iran and Iraq. As an additional incentive to those two hostile nations, China provided highly sensitive weapons technology via the Great Wall industries group, and successfully encouraged North Korea to participate in these Middle East missile programs. This, to the dismay of many intelligence observers, included the Shahab-5 Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles which, with their five thousand kilometer range, would give Saddam strike capability throughout all of the Middle East and Europe, once the project was realized.
‘Do we have the numbers now to proceed?’ The President looked directly at the American Ambassador to the United Nations who, having already commenced lobbying those representatives whose countries were ambivalent to the West’s concerns, seemed quite unhappy with the question.
‘If China abstains without veto in the Security Council, we should have no difficulty there. What concerns me most is the amount of growing resistance to another strike against Iraq within the General Assembly.
Support has dwindled considerably, and with the currency meltdowns occurring in Asia, the United States does not exactly head the popularity lists. There is considerable anti-American sentiment running through Asia, as we are perceived to be responsible for the currency meltdowns in Thailand and Korea.’ He then paused, spread his open hands and shrugged. ‘If we push for a vote before the Asian situation deteriorates further, my guess is that we will have the support needed.’
The President considered the ambassador’s response for some minutes, then looked over at the Admiral.
‘When we go in, I don’t want any American soldiers on the ground anywhere near this goddamn gas.’ He was troubled by the reports that Saddam had amassed stockpiles of the lethal VX nerve gas.
Once the Israelis had discovered the existence of the deadly gas, they had threatened their own pre-emptive strike against Iraq without waiting for any U.N. debate on the matter. Although ‘Operation Desert Storm’ had successfully destroyed most of Iraq’s armaments, the country had maintained its belligerent course, rebuilding its shattered defenses. Saddam Hussein’s refusal to permit U.N. inspectors access to what U.S. satellite intelligence identified as suspected armories for the storage of weapons of mass destruction, only supported the West’s gravest fears. The Chinese ICBM’s were to be used to deliver the VX as part of their payload.
Admiral Brown affirmed that there would be no ground troops deployed in the action, having already decided to maximize air-strikes to destroy the targeted depots and suspected missile storage sites, including the Presidential Palaces.
The conference concluded and those no longer required departed leaving the President to discuss other matters with National Security Adviser Alex Hastings, the Defense Secretary, Steven Cohen, and John W. Peterson, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency. The Chief of Staff hesitated at the door expecting to be included in these discussions.
‘Thanks, Dean.’ It was a clear signal that the President would not require his presence and, although miffed with the polite dismissal, he smiled and closed the door gently behind as he exited, curious as to what might transpire in his absence.
* * * *
The concerns which were to be discussed had arisen out of growing evidence that there had been a substantial shift in Indonesian politics, one which had been discussed over a number of months, and one which had the potential of destabilizing not only South East Asia, but America’s efforts to consolidate its position in China. Less than three weeks had passed since these men had last been required to brief their chief. Now, with confirmation that the American President would visit China within the following months, it was essential that events in the Indonesian archipelago in no way influenced negotiations which would take place in Beijing.
‘Well?’ The President asked, standing to restore circulation. He rubbed the back of his thighs, stretched, then returned to his seat. Director Peterson carried no files, for what he had to impart would not be recorded, not even for future Presidential libraries.
‘It’s not good news. It appears that our earlier speculations were on track. No matter which way we interpret the intelligence, it would appear that Suhapto is, indeed, considering the acquisition of nuclear-capable missile technology from Iran,’ he relayed, his voice devoid of any emotion.
‘The general consensus is that he also intends giving the Indonesian Moslem parties a major say in the country’s administration.’
‘I don’t know, John,’ the President argued, ‘seems like a radical flip to me. Suhapto is a cunning old codger, are you sure we’re not misreading what’s going on here?’
‘Everything we’ve gathered points to the same conclusion.’
‘Are we certain that our judgment