Tafelberg Short: South Africa in BRICS. William Gumede
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form of democracy in Turkey.’[9]
China’s long-term stability is uncertain. At the moment China’s approach is one of a managed democratic opening: gradually liberalising its politics but holding opposition, dissent and the Internet on a tight leash while keeping economic growth rates high. China needs Africa’s raw materials to keep on growing at high levels if it is to keep the millions of impoverished Chinese on board. The moment economic growth slackens and the economic benefits to millions of poor Chinese slows, a North African-style revolt against the autocratic government will become a reality there too.
Many of the industrial economies are very dynamic and are already rebooting. The German economy, which generates close to a third of the Eurozone output, has largely managed to evade the recession its neighbours have fallen into. The United States still remains the largest national economy on the globe, with 2009 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of US$15 trillion and average per capita income of US$41 000, compared to that of China with GDP of US$5 trillion and per capita income of less than US$4 000 per year.[10]
There is a power vacuum in the world: the emerging market economies are growing stronger, but not strong enough to replace the old industrial powers just yet.
A world in flux offers South Africa an extraordinary opportunity. If strategic, and if it has the right quality of leadership and ideas, a robust democracy, and it acts as South Africa Inc., the country could be the factory of a rapidly growing Africa, much as Japan was in Asia immediately after the Second World War. While part of BRICS, South Africa must balance its engagement between BRICS, other emerging markets such as Turkey, and the industrial powers in the West.
1 World Bank, Global Development Horizons – Multipolarity: The New Global Economy, Washington DC, World Bank Publications, 2011.
2 African Development Bank (AfDB), Africa in 50 Years’ Time: The Road Towards Inclusive Growth, Addis Ababa, 2011.
3 Associated Press (AP), Spy Program Gathered Americans’ Internet Records, Washington DC, 27 June 2013.
4 Gary Pruitt, Letter to the US Attorney-General Eric Holder, Washington DC, 13 May 2013.
5 See Mike Mansfield, Speech at the meeting of the Campaign Against Criminalising Communities, House of Lords, London, 13 May 2003; Stephanie Harrison, Speech at the meeting of the Campaign Against Criminalising Communities, House of Lords, London, 13 May 2003; Gareth Pierce, Speech at the meeting of the Campaign Against Criminalising Communities, House of Lords, London, 13 May 2003.
6 AP, Chinese trade firm accused of software theft in the US, Madison, United States, 29 June 2013.
7 Agence France-Presse (AFP), China, US trade hacking accusations, Beijing, 23 June 2013.
8 Richard F Doner, Bryan K Ritchie and Dan Slater, Systemic Vulnerability and the Origins of Developmental States: Northeast and Southeast Asia in Comparative Perspective, International Organization, Vol. 59, no. 2 (Spring) 2005, pp. 327–361.
9 Quoted in Jethro Mullin and Susannah Cullinane, What’s driving unrests and protests in Turkey’, CNN, 4 June, 2013 (http://edition.cnn.com/2013/06/03/world/europe/turkey-conflict-explainer).
10 William J Antholis and Martin S Indyk, How we’re doing compared to the rest of the world, Brookings Institute, 13 February 2011.
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