Banking in Crisis. Fabian Brunner
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Dr. Fabian Brunner
Banking in Crisis
How strategic trends will change the banking business of the future
1st edition
Copyright: © 2020 Dr. Fabian Brunner
Editing: Erik Kinting – www.buchlektorat.net
Translation: Geoff Maddocks
Cover design and layout: Erik Kinting
Published and printed by:
tredition GmbH
Halenreie 40-44
22359 Hamburg
Germany
978-3-347-10201-9 (Paperback)
978-3-347-10202-6 (Hardcover)
978-3-347-10203-3 (e-Book)
This work, including any part thereof, is protected by copyright. This work and any part thereof shall not be used without the permission of the publisher and the author. This applies without limitation to electronic or other copying, translation, distribution and making available to the public.
Bibliographical information of Deutsche Nationalbibliothek (German National Library):
Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie (German National Bibliography); detailed bibliographical information is available on the Internet at
http://dnb.d-nb.de.
Contents
Quo vadis banking?
Background
Approach
The valuation of banks – a special case
The valuation of a bank is not a simple corporate valuation
Consequences for valuation
Valuation approaches and their suitability
The challenge of forecasting
Capitalized earnings approach
Equity and return
The cost of equity
Forecasting future net cash flows
Market approaches
Price-to-earnings ratio
Price-to-book ratio
The valuation of banking business areas
Consumer banking
Investment banking
Summary and outlook
Banking business models
Value creation and business model
The banking value creation model
Trends in banking
Outsourcing of the banking value chain
The role of FinTechs in banking taking the example of the neo-banks
Acquisition of growth and know-how
The goal of achieving a competitive advantage
Attractiveness of sector
Excursion:
The relative competitive position
Excursion:
The evaluation of (bank) strategies
Evaluation criteria
Evaluation approaches
Summary and outlook
Strategy and competition
Market attractiveness taking the German banking market as an example
The transformation of banking business
German banks in competition
The opportunity and risk profile
The competitive situation – case studies
Commerzbank
The bank as a whole
Business areas
Deutsche Bank
The bank as a whole
Business areas (divisions)
Summary and outlook
Value creation analysis – case studies
Survey-based value creation analysis
Background and methodology
Empirical results
Part I.
Intensity of competition – Threat to competitive position
Part II.
The relationship between customers and banks – competitive advantage
Part III.
Future prospects – with reference to the standard banking business case, branch business
Market-based value creation analysis
Market development
Commerzbank
Deutsche Bank
Earnings situation
Summary and outlook
Conclusion
Appendix: Questionnaire
End notes
Quo vadis banking?
Background
Banks now face a large number of previously unknown challenges. Apart from the fact that everyday business is becoming increasingly globalized and technologized, banking in the future will be characterized by increasingly intense regulatory provisions and a growing number of new entrants, driven by digitalization and specializing in individual aspects of the banking value stream, especially the BigTechs. All these developments will significantly change the competitive situation, value creation structures and existing business models of the banking industry.
To date, the strategic trends faced by the classical banking value creation process, which are mentioned in this book, have chiefly been innovations, which have largely been followed by banks throughout the world. It therefore seemed that the traditional value creation model of the banks had survived unchanged over the course of time. As long as the author can remember, the basic configuration of core banking industry operations, the smooth processing of payment transactions and financing operations, has remained unchanged. These core operations lay the foundations for the key functions of banking within any economy. Payment and financing transactions are simply indispensable for the proper functioning of an economy. Of course, the world has not stood still – the establishment of online banking is one example – but the basic logic of the banking industry has scarcely changed at all over the past decades.
Nevertheless, there are now signs that the perfect storm is now brewing, at least for the European banking industry. On the one hand, banks face an economic stress scenario as a result of COVID-19 in conjunction with the currently low levels of profitability of Europe’s banks. Despite the progress achieved since the financial crisis, the global financial system is vulnerable to a poor economic situation with a significant duration. Over the past few years, the share of relatively high-risk borrowers in banks’ loan portfolios has grown steadily. Impairment losses and bad debts will therefore grow even faster and more strongly in the impending global recession than would have been the case with a balanced