The Russia-China Axis. Douglas E. Schoen
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The Russia-China Axis
© 2014 by Douglas E. Schoen and Melik Kaylan
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Encounter Books, 900 Broadway, Suite 601, New York, New York, 10003.
First American edition published in 2014 by Encounter Books, an activity of Encounter for Culture and Education, Inc., a nonprofit, tax exempt corporation.
Encounter Books website address: www.encounterbooks.com
The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of ANSI/NISO Z39.48–1992 (R 1997) (Permanence of Paper).
FIRST AMERICAN EDITION
LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION DATA
Schoen, Douglas E., 1953– , author.
The Russia-China axis: the new cold war and America’s crisis of leadership / by Douglas E. Schoen and Melik Kaylan.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-59403-757-3 (ebook) 1. United States—Foreign relations—21st century. 2. United States—Foreign relations administration—21st century. 3. National security—United States. 4. Russia (Federation)—Foreign relations—China. 5. China—Foreign relations—Russia (Federation) 6. World politics—2005–2015. I. Kaylan, Melik, 1962– , author. II. Title.
JZ1480.S358 2014
327.47051—dc23
2014002441
Contents
CHAPTER 2 Rogue Regimes: How the Axis Uses Proxies to Win
CHAPTER 3 Cyber Security: The New Battlefield
CHAPTER 4 Military Supremacy: America’s Fading Edge
CHAPTER 5 Nuclear Security: They Build Up, We Build Down
CHAPTER 6 The Economic Contest: America on the Sidelines
CHAPTER 7 Intelligence Wars: Stealing America’s Secrets
CHAPTER 8 Propaganda Wars: Losing Ground in the Battle for Hearts and Minds
CHAPTER 9 Countermoves: Some Thoughts on Fighting Back
CONCLUSION Why America Must Wake Up
WHAT TO DO Russia
WHAT TO DO China
WHAT TO DO The New Axis
WHAT TO DO Rebuilding Alliances
Endnotes
Index
We wrote most of this book before the recent, unfolding events in Ukraine, as well as before further developments confirming the existence of a Russian-Chinese alliance. These events and others, in our view, only confirm the validity and relevance of our arguments, but we offer this foreword as a more current take on the state of affairs as we go to press (2014).
“Now Russia-China cooperation is advancing to a new stage of comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction. It would not be wrong to say that it has reached the highest level in all its centuries-long history.”
—VLADIMIR PUTIN1
“[Russia’s and China’s] enhanced partnership marks the first emergence of a global coalition against American hegemony since the fall of the Berlin Wall.”
—CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER2
“The Sino-Soviet rift that brought the two countries to the brink of nuclear war in the ’60s has been healed rather dramatically.”
—STROBE TALBOTT3
“The echoes of the non-aggression pacts of the 1930s get louder in this age of American retreat.”
—WALL STREET JOURNAL 4
“If not letting America have its own way is Mr. Obama’s objective, he is an unparalleled foreign-policy success.”
—JOHN BOLTON5
“This will be the biggest construction project in the world for the next four years, without exaggeration,” Vladimir Putin said in Shanghai in May 2014, as he raised a glass to drink a toast with Chinese president Xi Jinping.6
The two leaders were celebrating the signing of a 30-year, $400 billion natural-gas deal between their countries—the biggest in the history of the natural-gas industry. Under the terms of the deal, Russia would supply the Chinese with natural gas for the first time—38 billion cubic meters of gas per year, through pipelines and other massive infrastructure investments. The Chinese would gain a major new source of energy, and a cleaner-burning fuel, in a country facing major pollution problems. Russia would acquire a massive new customer base for its gas, at a time when Europe seeks to diversify from Russian sources. The deal, Putin said, was “an epochal event” in the relationship between the two nations. For his part, President Xi, always the less voluble of the two leaders, spoke of expanding commerce with Russia. “We are determined that trade between our countries will reach $100 billion by 2015,” he said. Moscow hopes to double that figure by 2020.
The agreement had been in the works for a decade, but some commentators saw it solely in the context of a current crisis: the Western reaction against Russia after its illegal annexation of Crimea in Ukraine, and the threat that war might break out between Russia and Ukraine. “The crisis in relations with the West over Ukraine has made ties to Asia, and particularly relations with its economic engine, China, a key strategic priority,” the New York Times asserted, discussing Putin’s interest in China.7
That sounded perfectly logical. It was also perfectly wrong.
The truth is, Putin’s trip to Shanghai was only the latest evidence of an unfolding alliance between Russia and China that most observers are only now starting to acknowledge. The gas deal was so