Return to Winter. Douglas E. Schoen
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America’s backyard. Not all of this is new: Russia had meddled aggressively in Latin America during the Cold War, and Putin forged a powerful alliance with Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chávez and has stayed close to his successor, Nicolás Maduro. Russia and Venezuela announced joint military drills in the Southern Caribbean Sea for later this year, and rumors persist that Moscow plans to sell Caracas military aircraft.51 In March 2015, Putin’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, visited Cuba, Colombia, Guatemala, and Nicaragua—countries that have famously fraught relations with the United States. Nicaragua wants to buy Russian-made fighter jets—to the concern of its neighbors, Costa Rica and Honduras. One analyst said the move could spark “a small-scale arms race” in the region.52 Russia and Argentina might soon close a deal under which Moscow would lease 12 Sukhoi Su-24 Fencer aircraft to Buenos Aires in return for beef and wheat. Rumors of that deal prompted the British Defence Ministry to launch a review of air defenses on the Falkland Islands.
Russia is clearly determined to make clear to the West that it remains a global power—and not a mere “regional power,” as President Obama dismissively described it. Struggling under the Western sanctions and exclusion from the G8 after the Ukraine crisis, Russia is looking for new partners—and it tends to find them among nations already hostile to the United States. Moscow even appears ready to get involved in some long-running Latin American disputes, whether the U.S. blockade of Cuba or the Falklands–Malvinas Islands standoff between Argentina and the United Kingdom.53
China is already Latin America’s biggest creditor. Earlier this year, Xi pledged massive new direct investment commitments for Latin America, and Chinese companies announced a slew of new deals in the region. At least for now, the Chinese push seems more economic than political, but like Moscow, Beijing is doing business with the regional players most at odds with Washington: Venezuela, Argentina, Ecuador, which all have a harder time getting loans from Western banking institutions, especially the American-dominated World Bank. China is setting itself up as an alternative funder for Latin America. The leading beneficiary has been Venezuela, which has supplied oil to Beijing in exchange for funding for economic and infrastructure-development projects.54 Last year, Xi visited Venezuela and formally upgraded the two countries’ relationship to a “comprehensive strategic partnership.”
In the economic sphere, as in others, the United States has not kept pace with its determined adversaries, with one encouraging exception: The Obama administration has boldly pushed for passage of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade deal involving the United States and mostly Asian nations as well as others, including Canada—but excluding China. “China wants to write the rules for the world’s fastest-growing region,” the president said. “Why would we let that happen? We should write those rules.”55 He has shown this kind of vision and purpose only rarely during his presidency, however.
THE CLOUD OF WAR AND THE URGENCY OF ACTION
It has become a commonplace in recent years to observe that the American public is “tuned out” when it comes to foreign policy and that during election time foreign-policy issues—with the exception of terrorism—tend not to engage voters. Certainly there is some truth to this, and in recent years the tendency has become exacerbated by a growing distaste, at least among a portion of the voting public, for international involvement on the part of the United States. President Obama’s call to “do some nation building here at home” has resonated with Americans who rightly worry about our mounting list of domestic problems, from spiraling budget deficits and unfunded entitlement programs to failing public schools and crumbling infrastructure. It’s a time-honored American tendency to want to turn away from the problems of the world.
But if there is a single prevailing point that we wish to stress in the book you are about to read, it is that the time when Americans could afford such isolationist impulses (if we ever could) has passed. A second common refrain of recent years—that we live in an interconnected world—cuts against the first. In this interconnected world, the United States remains indispensable, even if our conduct in recent years has suggested otherwise. It is our hope that, after reading Return to Winter: Russia, China, and the New Cold War Against America, you will share our view that the United States must reassume world leadership in the face of mounting threats and challenges—both for its own good and for the peace and security of the world.
“That is why the strategic partnership between us is of great importance on both a bilateral and global scale. [Russia-China relations are] the best in their centuries-long history. They are characterized by a high degree of mutual trust, respect for each other’s interests, support in vital issues. They are a true partnership.”
—VLADIMIR PUTIN1
It was a dramatic, even spellbinding, scene. A Russian honor guard stood at attention and martial music played as the jetliner taxied into Moscow’s Vnukovo Airport. As millions of Russians watched live on television or at their computers, seemingly every cameraman and print reporter in the country jostled for position—something like when the Beatles arrived at Idlewild Airport. And then, finally, the sighting: Xi Jinping, China’s new president, touched Russian soil for the first time.
The hype didn’t end at his arrival. Those millions of Russians continued to watch live as Xi went directly to the Grand Kremlin Palace, where, for the first time in memory, Russian cavalry units greeted a visiting dignitary. They watched as Russian president Vladimir Putin greeted Xi warmly. They watched as Xi’s glamorous wife, a renowned singer and actress, carried herself with poise and elegance. The day played out on television almost like a royal wedding. And in many ways, it was. The pomp reflected reality: China and Russia have increasingly become devoted to each other.
Like smitten newlyweds, the two leaders even parroted each other’s lines. “China will make developing relations with Russia a priority in its foreign-policy orientation,” Xi said before arriving in Moscow.2 Said Putin: “Russian-Chinese relations are a crucial factor of international politics. Our trade is growing, both countries are involved in large humanitarian projects, and all of that serves the interests of the Chinese and Russian people.”3
“The fact that I will visit Russia, our friendly neighbor, shortly after assuming presidency is a testimony to the great importance China places on its relations with Russia,” Xi told Chinese journalists before departing. “The two sides have had closer strategic coordination on the world stage.”4 Putin agreed: “The strategic partnership between us is of great importance on both a bilateral and global scale.” The Russian-Chinese partnership, Putin added, was “characterized by a high degree of mutual trust, respect for each other’s interests, support in vital issues.” It was “a true partnership,”5 and Russian-Chinese relations were “the best in their centuries-long history.”6 Xi spoke of the two nations as close friends who treat each other with “open souls.”7 He even expressed his love of Russian literature and culture.
What’s happening here? Russia and China, suspicious neighbors for centuries and fellow Communist antagonists during the Cold War, have been drawing closer and closer together because of a confluence of geostrategic, political, and economic interests. The overwhelming evidence suggests that an unprecedented partnership has developed.
The world is seeing the formalization and strengthening of a historic new alliance—a Russia-China Axis that presents the leading national-security threat to the United States in this young century, against which we seem almost willfully unprepared. Few appreciate the full nature of the threat; far fewer are even aware of it. Some who are, such as journalist Joshua Kurlantzick, see the Russia-China cooperation as part of an adverse trend for democratic governance, which is losing ground around the world to autocracy.8 But the significance of the Russia-China Axis is even broader.
Russia and China now cooperate and coordinate to an unprecedented degree—politically, militarily, economically—and their cooperation,