Ukraine vs. Darkness. Olexander Scherba
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Putin has created a kind of an around-the-clock global repair service for broken dictatorships: the number one go-to destination for failing authoritarian leaders the world over. So far, it does the job, with thousands of people dead, with new democracies bleeding, and with the West either passively watching or eagerly co-financing this political enterprise via joint ventures like the Nordstream-2 pipeline.
At some point, the US and EU will have to face the bitter truth: Russia chose to confront the West. It wasn’t forced to. It had other options—plenty of those. Yet it chose a covert global face-off instead of a win-win world. It decided on a strategy to undermine the West wherever it can. There is nothing the West can do to change this decision. It can either push back or look away, as Russia pushes on. No number of resets, peaceful speeches, friendly handshakes, and visits to the May 9th Victory Day parade in Moscow will make Putin reconsider his attitude. This for one simple reason: the confrontation mode is the one in which the Kremlin functions best and feels most comfortable, and through which the world makes most sense for today’s Russian leadership (for their electorate too, for that matter). All the friendly gestures aimed at assuaging the hostility will only persuade Russia that Putin was right in pegging the West as weak and corruptible.
No, the Soviet Union isn’t back. Not yet. Not without Ukraine—and Ukraine, despite all her flaws, isn’t budging. Ukraine has the guts to stand her ground. However, in some respect, today’s Russia is even more dangerous than the Soviet Union—primarily because it is more capable of getting inside the minds and souls of Western citizens, inside their pocketbooks and notebooks, inside their television and social media.
That’s why, by the way, the whole “We need to partner up with Russia to tackle China” argument doesn’t hold water. First of all, China is still a closed book for the West, and the West is a closed book for China. If China wants to undermine the West one way or another, it is impeded by the fact that it is so different mentally and historically. And vice versa. Second of all, China has a different sense of time. It can wait—unlike Russia, who sees this moment of the West’s weakness as a unique, historic opportunity to go on the offensive. Third of all, for Russia, this is payback time. For China, payback for what? Unlike Russia, China is not beset by an inferiority complex. China is a success—Russia isn’t, far from it. More than this, China became successful together with the West and because of the West, not despite it. So, once again—why destroy the world order that made China a success?
Whenever I hear the phrase “Russia isn’t the problem, China is!” I know I deal with someone who doesn’t know Russia (let alone China). And sometimes—with someone who has a vested interest in appeasing Putin and belittling the danger he represents. Did China bomb Syria and annex Crimea? Did China proclaim and adopt the “Gerasimov Doctrine”? Did China hire and inspire a whole army of “talking heads” in the news outlets and think tanks to undermine western societies? Did China fill social media with trolls posing as Americans, Germans, Brits? Did China finance anti-EU political parties all over the continent?
All the loose strings that the West has—Moscow knows how to pull them. From exploiting the interracial tensions to messing with democratic elections and from cultivating political intolerance to spreading the QAnon crackpot ideas. Provided the right mindset and a lot of money (both of which Putin has), the West has turned out to be a surprisingly easy target. At least, as long as the United States and the European Union put up with things going this way. Victory is an accomplishment—failure is a decision. So, dear America and Europe, be careful what you decide at this critical juncture of history!
Russia won’t stop till it’s made to stop. And there is a simple way to reach that goal if one has the guts to do it: make the sanctions as personal as possible. Let the Russian decision-makers, propagandists, oligarchs, and their families spend their vacations on Kamchatka and Chukotka, not in their England castles and Italian villas. Cancel their “golden passports”. Go after their money, cut them off from their wealth—via SWIFT, via visa bans, via freezing their bank accounts. Make not only their reputations toxic, but their money too.
That’s it. That’s all it takes. Start defending yourself—and be bold enough to not be greedy! Russia quickly penetrates your world because it can think like you; it knows how you tick. It wants to live like you and among you, too—without being your friend or even an honest partner. It’s a quintessential love/hate relationship. They hate you, but at the same time, you are their “promised land”, the place where they want their children to study and to live. Ban the decision-makers personally from the “promised land”—and they will be forced to change their decisions, their whole attitude towards the outside world. On the other hand, embrace them—and they will despise you even more.
Meanwhile, Ukraine (Putin’s sweatiest dream and sweetest bonus) is doing what she can on her own—fighting her own demons and the demons of the post-truth world simultaneously. The nation is never full of herself. Yet she is full of surprises. Whenever you think Ukraine is toast, she rises from the ashes. Whenever you think Ukraine is rushing into a new positive future, she finds a new political or moral crisis to stop and argue about. The world thinks of Ukraine as a corrupt nation—and yet, as I pointed out before, during Ukraine’s two revolutions, not a single store was looted. With the police off the streets, with Kyiv’s posh boutiques, shops, and supermarkets being at the mercy of the protesters in 2004 and 2013–14, not only were they not robbed—by some accounts, the usual burglary rate even decreased in those months.
So, who are we really—the corrupt ones or the idealists who fight for freedom and respect other peoples’ private property even when no one is watching? Well, we are both so far. With a large part of Ukraine’s political elite living a lie, we have been living a lie, too. But ultimately, Ukraine wants to live in truth. Hence, the two revolutions. Hence, Putin’s inability to buy or seduce us. Hence, the lingering hybrid war between Ukraine and the post-truth world embodied by Russia and its eager helpers in the West.
With the right leadership, with the right words and deeds on the part of the elite—Ukraine can turn the corner and enter a better future real fast. We are like a plane chained to the ground by two things: bad governance and corruption (caused by bad governance). Break these chains—and the plane will fly. What we need are reforms to Ukraine’s institutions, which nurture the corruption. We need to bring in the ministers and their deputies, the mid-level decision-makers who have the vision, reputation, and the guts to say no to the oligarchs and to the daily seductions of the public service. Once this happens, things will improve drastically and precipitously. Later on, I demonstrate in more detail how this can be done.
We Ukrainians know our sins. No one is more critical of Ukraine than we are. Yet, sometimes we deny our country even the credit she deserves. Sometimes we are blind to how much power and potential we have inside. That is why we are the “surprise nation”. We have surprised ourselves and the outside world in the past. And we are not done yet, far from it. I don’t only mean the two Maidans that changed the run of history in our region.
Most importantly, Ukraine is the bulwark in Putin’s way to reconquering what he deems as rightfully and historically his. If he can’t control Ukraine, all his other accomplishments are, if not completely worthless, then at least not as inspirational for future generations as he wants them to be. Without Ukraine, his whole legacy would be questionable. Without Ukraine, his entire organization, this horde of KGB/FSB orcs, war-mongering “girkins” and “borodais,”4 who stand behind him and look up to him, would question whether the boss got too old and lost his grip.
Ukraine and Russia have much in common. That is why the Ukrainian revolution is, to some extent, the Russian revolution too. It’s not like bringing a revolution to Russia, and changing it from the ground up must be the West’s goal. Far from it. Yet the line in the sand must be drawn: the world must make sure that neither Russia nor anyone else messes with other nations’ free will. International law must be respected again. At least, if we want to live in a world that is not 100% hypocritical.
On the other hand, no matter where you draw the line and how high or low you put the new plank of “international rules” in the post-Crimea reality, in every case, Ukraine is the West’s indispensable