Business Trends in Practice. Бернард Марр
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total global population is still growing, some countries are witnessing population decline due to factors such as migration and low birthrates. For example, Russia's population is expected to shrink by 18 million between 2006 and 2030, and Japan's population is projected to decrease by 11 million.18
What's more, the world's population is growing older. As an example, in 1950, life expectancy in China was 40 years. By 2050, it will be 80 years.19 This pattern is replicated across the world. In 2006, there were almost 500 million people in the world aged 65 and older. By 2030, that is projected to increase to 1 billion people, or 1 in 8 of the world's inhabitants.20 This is good news because it shows that we have improved healthcare and living standards to allow people to live longer, but it does create societal and economic pressures.
People are on the move, too. The number of people living in urban areas is rising rapidly. The world's urban population grew from 751 million in 1950 to 4.2 billion in 2018. Currently, 55 percent of the global population lives in urban areas, and this will increase to 68 percent by 2050. Asia is home to 54 percent of the world's urban population.21
The number of megacities (classified by the UN as cities with 10 million or more inhabitants) is also on the rise. By 2030, there will be 43 megacities, up from 33 in 2018.22
The cities that we live in will increasingly become “smart” and connected. There will be more than 25 global smart cities in 2025 (more than 50 percent of which will be in Europe and North America).23
Meanwhile, the shift to more urban living will drive huge economic growth in developing economies. The emerging megacities in developing economies are expected to outperform developed megacities in terms of share of the world's GDP by 2025.24 This, in turn, will lead to a growth in the consuming classes. By 2030, 66 percent of the world's middle classes will be living in Asia.25
Each of these factors creates opportunities and challenges. Longer lives, for example, must be planned for. Age-related chronic diseases will rise. The costs of healthcare and social insurance will rise. Patterns of work and retirement will shift. And societal aging as a whole may affect economic growth as the ratio of workers to retirees shifts. (Europe currently has four people of working age for every older person, but that will shrink to two workers per older person by 2050.)26
In another example, the opportunities around the growing urban populations and middle classes are huge. But we must also ensure cities develop in a sustainable way and that we address global inequality. Currently, the world's richest 1 percent own 44 percent of the world's wealth, which hardly seems fair.27 According to the UN, inequality affects more than 70 percent of the global population and is on the rise across the world, including in fast-growing economies like China.28 This is just another example of global trends moving in opposite directions – more people are being lifted out of poverty and the middle class is growing, yet the gap between the very rich and the poor is also growing.
This rising inequality must be tackled at national and international levels. We may even need to rethink our economic and democratic systems and reshape systems that are no longer fit for purpose. If we don't tackle inequality, the problems of division, divergence, and polarization will be exacerbated, and economic and social development will be restricted.
Finally, let's turn our attention to the social and cultural shifts that are taking place.
Trend 5: Social, Cultural, and Workplace Shifts
I find it fascinating that, while the world seems more polarized than ever, we're also seeing greater convergence between cultures. Think of Hollywood films influencing other cultures, or the global appeal of South Korean boyband BTS, or the way a Chinese teenager's video on TikTok can go viral in the US. Globally, 65 percent of people agree that we have more things in common than things that make us different.29 Yet this is also an age of diversity and individuality; research suggests that individualism is a global phenomenon, not just a Western trend.30 Once again, we see how global trends can contrast with each other.
Let's take a brief look at how society, culture, and the workplace are changing:
Marriage is on the decline, and single-person households are the fastest-growing household profile in the period to 2030.31
The gender gap remains a frustratingly stubborn problem. Women still remain less likely to participate in the labor market than men, are more likely to be unemployed than men, are overrepresented in vulnerable employment, are constrained from achieving the highest leadership positions, and are paid less than men.32 On top of that, it looks as though the socioeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis have disproportionately affected women.33
Closing the gender gap is important, not just for women but for the benefit of society as a whole. There is a strong positive correlation between countries that are successfully closing the gender gap and their economic performance, and narrowing the gender gap means the global income per person will increase by at least 20 percent by 2030.34
The number of Gen Z (those born after 1997) and millennials (Gen Y, born between 1981 and 1996) in the workplace is on the rise and baby boomers are retiring. As the workforce demographic changes, so too do the needs and expectations of workers. To baby boomers, putting in long hours was often seen as essential for success, but those entering the workplace now prioritize flexibility and work–life balance. In this age of personalization and individualism, Gen Z are also looking for an employee experience that is tailored to them. They expect training and mentoring, as well as challenging, meaningful work.35 They increasingly expect to identify with their employer's brand identity; as an example, 65 percent of people want to work for an organization “with a powerful social conscience.”36
How we work is changing, too. One in five global employees now work remotely at least some of the time,37 and the coronavirus pandemic will accelerate this “work from anywhere” culture. (Indeed, major companies like Twitter said early in the pandemic that workers wouldn't have to return to working in the office if they didn't want to.) The pandemic proved that remote working is feasible and beneficial across many industries, and as such we'll see the global job market accelerate – meaning tech workers no longer have to move to Palo Alto and so on.
This work-from-anywhere culture will likely fuel more “free agents” entering the workforce and the continued rise of the gig economy. The hierarchical organizational structures of the past may dwindle in favor of flatter, team- and project-based structures, where people can move