Злой рок. Политика катастроф. Ниал (Нил) Фергюсон
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О точных условиях пари см.: Bet 9, Long Bets Project, http://longbets.org/9/. Рис прежде всего был озабочен опасностью биотерроризма, но добавил «биологическую ошибку», подразумевая под ней «нечто, имеющее тот же эффект, что и террористическая атака, но возникшее скорее не из злого умысла, а по неосторожности». Есть некая двусмысленность в том, имеются ли в виду под словом «жертвы» только случаи со смертельным исходом: «В идеале в число жертв следует включить „людей, нуждающихся в госпитализации“ и не включать косвенные смерти, вызванные патогеном».
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Patrick G. T. Walker et al., «The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression», MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, Report 12, March 26, 2020.
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Для ознакомления: Ferguson, Square and the Tower.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (New York: Random House, 2012).
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«South Africa’s ‘Doom Pastor’ Found Guilty of Assault», BBC News, February 9, 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-43002701.
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«All unavoided is the doom of destiny». Пер. А. Радловой. Уильям Шекспир. Ричард III. Акт IV, сцена 4.
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«What, will the line stretch out to th' crack of doom?» Пер. М. Лозинского. Уильям Шекспир. Макбет. Акт IV, сцена 1.
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Nicole Sperling, «‘Contagion,’ Steven Soderbergh’s 2011 Thriller, Is Climbing up the Charts», New York Times, March 4, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/business/media/coronavirus-contagion-movie.html.
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Луи-Фердинанд Селин. Путешествие на край ночи / Пер. Ю. Корнеева. М., 1994.
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Louis-Ferdinand Céline, Journey to the End of the Night, trans. Ralph Manheim (New York: New Directions, 1983 [1934]), p. 14.
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Marc Bloch, L’étrange défaite: Témoignage écrit en 1940 (Paris: Gallimard, 1997 [1946]).
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Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins, Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them, 2nd ed. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Publishing, 2008); Michele Wucker, The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore (New York: Macmillan, 2016).
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (London: Penguin/Allen Lane, 2007).
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Didier Sornette, «Dragon Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises», Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series No. 09–36 (2009), доступно в источнике: SSRN, http://ssrn.com/abstract=1470006.
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Keith Thomas, Religion and the Decline of Magic: Studies in Popular Beliefs in Sixteenth and Seventeenth Century England (London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1971).
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Norman Dixon, On the Psychology of Military Incompetence (London: Pimlico, 1994).
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Christina Boswell, The Political Uses of Expert Knowledge: Immigration Policy and Social Research (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009).
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Henry A. Kissinger, «Decision Making in a Nuclear World» (1963), Henry A. Kissinger papers, Part II, Series I, Yale University Library, mssa.ms.1981/ref25093.
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Richard Feynman, «What Do You Care What Other People Think?» Further Adventures of a Curious Character (New York: W. W. Norton, 1988), pp. 179–184.
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«House Approves Creation of Committee to Investigate Katrina Response», Voice of America, 31.10.2009, https://www.voanews.com/archive/house-approves-creation-committee-investigate-katrina-response.
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J. R. Hampton, «The End of Medical History?» Journal of the Royal College of Physicians of London 32, no. 4 (1998), pp. 366–375.
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Larry Brilliant, «My Wish: Help Me Stop Pandemics», February 2006, TED video, 25:38, https://www.ted.com/talks/larry_brilliant_my_wish_help_me_stop_pandemics.
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См. в целом: Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс, eds., Global Ca tastrophic Risks (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008).
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Ricki Harris, «Elon Musk: Humanity Is a Kind of ‘Biological Boot Loader’ for AI», Wired, September 1, 2019, https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-humanity-biological-boot-loaderai/.
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Пер. М. Лозинского. Уильям Шекспир. Гамлет. Акт V, сцена 2.
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Retirement & Survivors Benefits: Life Expectancy Calculator, Social Security Administration, https://www.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/longevity.cgi; Life Expectancy Calculator, Office for National Statistics (UK), https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/20190607; Living to 100 Life Expectancy Calculator, https://www.livingto100.com/calculator/age.
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Max Roser, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, and Hannah Ritchie, «Life Expectancy», Our World in Data, 2013, last revised October 2019, https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy.
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«Mortality Rate, Under5 (Per 1,000 Live Births)», World Bank Group, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.DYN.MORT;