How to Think Strategically. Greg Githens
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of runs leading to a targeted number of wins [ways].
• Recruit talent based on our forecast of their performance and their affordability [ways and means].
• Not recruit highly-paid free agents [ways and means].
I made a simplifying assumption that Oakland’s goal was to win as many baseball games as possible. Accordingly, I identified the ways and means but not the ends. As you give thought to your own situation you should consider the broadest set of success criteria, including examining the ends statement.
Note that the fourth bullet point is an exclusionary statement. Limited resources (means) are a fact of life. Managers need to make choices (ways) about what to do and not do. A good strategy is one that focuses resources on the essential levers of power. A bad strategy is one that is unfocused and fails to address the real world of limited resources.
5. State the adaptation of the organization. The fifth preamble for writing strategy is this:
Given our centralized choices about direction and focus, our decentralized execution involves:
• Focusing research on college players rather than high school players.
• Positioning players in the lineup to maximize each player’s probability of getting on base.
• Experimenting with reassigning players from one position to another in order to leverage the player’s hitting prowess (for example, training a catcher to play first base.
This fifth part of the template helps us to understand that strategy involves policy choices that shape decisions made at the front lines of the organization.
In contrast to establishing and communicating goals, executives provide policy guidance in combination with resources. A good strategy recognizes that front-line managers have more expertise in some specific part of the organization. Empowered lower-level managers make better choices if they understand the interests and beliefs that frame the strategy.
Sometimes the top managers must use formal power associated with their position to compel others to act against narrower, personal interests. An example is the diminished decision-making prerogatives of Oakland’s field manager.
Crafting Strategy
If clever is an appropriate adjective for describing how strategy functions, the word crafted is a good verb for characterizing the act of developing it. Picture a woodworker crafting a table or a potter crafting a vase. She balances two guiding ideas in her mind: the general shape of the goal (e.g., table or vase) and the properties of her materials. She does not exclusively fixate on the goal, nor does she exclusively focus on her materials. She imagines a combination, a fit, of the function of the object and the properties of the materials. She iterates and experiments.
It is better to say that “strategy is crafted,” rather than “strategy is planned.”
Billy Beane’s multiyear work with the Moneyball strategy shows many parallels with the crafting analogy. The early Moneyball practices were simple. They evolved, with experimentation, into a more-refined and sophisticated strategy.
Another example of craftsmanship in strategy is the development of 3M’s Post-it Notes. The story starts with a researcher, Spence Silver, who developed a substance that he called microspheres. These microspheres had unique physical properties (they were weak adhesives). Silver’s genius was in noticing the interesting properties of the microspheres and in his drive to search for a potential application. Silver persevered even when his bosses discouraged him. Success came years later when Silver’s colleague Art Fry made an insightful connection that the microspheres could be coated onto paper and used as a placeholder in documents.
There are three more essential points in this strategy-as-craft analogy. First, strategy has raw materials: beliefs, bets, dominating ideas, insights, strategic resources, actions, and choices. Second, just as a vase functions as a container, strategy functions to advance the interests of the organization and manage issues. Third, strategy evolves from simple experiments to more-elaborate programs, just as techniques of craftsmanship evolve from crude to sophisticated.
The Sharpness Theorem
“The real challenge in crafting strategy,” writes Henry Mintzberg, “lies in detecting the subtle discontinuities that may undermine a business in the future. And for that,” he continues, “there is no technique, no program, just a sharp mind in touch with the situation.” Mintzberg’s idea of “a sharp mind in touch with the situation” echoes my assertion that a competent person is one who understands the situation and acts reasonably.
Let’s unpack three important ideas.
A competent strategic thinker is a sharp mind in touch with the situation.
Organizations will be undermined in the future. Very few established organizations sustain their power and leadership. Evidence of undermining is easily found in business, such as the turnover of membership on the Fortune magazine list of largest corporations. Moreover, loss of relevance can also be seen in schools, churches, communities, and not-for-profit organizations that were once vibrant and are now shuttered or are making little impact.
External environments are always in flux, and leaders of these declining organizations find it easier to focus on operations (that is neglect the ambiguity of the situation) and their personal aspirations. We can confidently predict that the future of today’s successful organizations is to face significantly different conditions. We can also predict that some institutions will fail to effectively respond and will lose power and relevance.
Detecting subtle discontinuities is the real challenge of strategy. A discontinuity is a deviation from expectations. It’s a weak signal that may (or may not) grow into a force that alters the future of an organization.
Specific discontinuities are not predictable. One may emerge at a specific time and place. Or it may not. Once a discontinuity emerges, there is no way to know whether there will be a significant impact or not. This is true whether we’re considering an economic bubble, new technology, or legislation. Some individuals sense the implications of the discontinuities and some do not.
Figure 2-2. A discontinuity may (or may not) trigger a chaotic, large-scale effect.
Figure 2-2 presents a general model of the life cycle of a discontinuity. Imagine an offshore earthquake as an example of a discontinuity. The average person is unlikely to notice a subtle occurrence. Perhaps the earthquake causes a disruptive tsunami, but perhaps it has no effect. Let’s assume that it causes a tsunami and that the tsunami crashes into a populated area and disrupts normal life. Chaos ensues. What new norm will appear in the reconfigured system?
Disruptions seldom destroy systems. For example, even though both World War I and World War II were devastating, new political and economic orders emerged that retained certain legacy elements of the incumbent systems and added innovations. Systems have various degrees of brittleness or resilience. When the system is disrupted, the emerging replacement can be quite different, such as when mammals became the largest land animals after the mass extinction of dinosaurs.
It’s worthwhile to note that an earthquake doesn’t instantly cause a tsunami, nor does a tsunami immediately cause destruction. Delays characterize any dynamic system. Further, the impacts might be severe, or the impacts might be insignificant.
Avoiding idealized best practices and methodology. Mintzberg asserts that “there is no technique and no program” for detecting discontinuities. This third part of the sharpness theorem contrasts with the preferences of many linear thinkers. It serves as a warning to strategic thinkers to avoid reflexive desires for methodology, such as using a formal set of strategic-planning templates.
The metaphor of organization-as-machine