Demographics Unravelled. Amlan Roy
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analysis. The UN databases cover all the consumers in the world, as any individual in the population, whether a baby or a centenarian, is a consumer. For data on workers, I rely primarily on International Labour Organization (ILO) data. In addition to the ILO and UN, data and research reports from the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Commission (EC), Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GGDC), US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), and other sources are used as and where appropriate.
Notes
1 1. Drucker, P.F. (2000). Management Challenges for the Twenty-first Century. Harper Business.
2 2. Kash, R. (2002). The New Law of Demand and Supply. Currency.
3 3. Life tables produced by actuaries using historical data giving conditional probabilities of an individual aged 35 years today living to be 45 years old, 10 years later.
4 4. Wolf, M. (2005). Why Globalization Works. Yale University Press.
5 5. Kahnemann, D. and Tversky, A. (1974). Judgement under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185 (4157): 1124–1131.
6 6. Thaler, R. (1974). Quasi Rational Economics. Russell Sage Foundation.
7 7. Thaler, R. (2015). Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics. Penguin.
8 8. Reid, J. (2018). The history (and future) of inflation. Deutsche Bank Research.
9 9. This is my adaptation of Aldous Huxley's Brave New World. We should aim for a Better New World in consistence with the climate change and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) challenges that all of us face.
10 10. Akerlof, G. and Shiller, R.J. (2009). Animal Spirits. Princeton University Press. The title's extension is telling on this point: Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism.
11 11. Penn, M.J. (2007). MicroTrends: The Small Forces Behind Today's Big Changes. Penguin, UK. And Penn, M.J. (2019). MicroTrends Squared. Simon and Schuster. Mark Penn, a political strategist and pollster, documented how these small micro-trends were emerging as major forces to change the world.
12 12. Peterson, P. (1999). Gray Dawn. Crown.
13 13. Peterson, P. (1996). Will America Grow Up Before It Grows Old? Random House.
14 14. Keating, G., Hokenson, R.J. and Roy, A. (2000). The demographic manifesto: new jobs, new people. Credit Suisse Research.
15 15. Kotlikoff, L.J. and Burns, S. (2004). The Coming Generational Storm. MIT Press. The book delves into the potential fiscal issues.
16 16. Heller, P. (2003). Who Will Pay? Coping with Ageing Societies, Climate Change, and Other Long-Term Fiscal Challenges. International Monetary Fund.
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