Demographics Unravelled. Amlan Roy

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Demographics Unravelled - Amlan Roy


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the Author

      Dr Amlan Roy is an experienced global macro-finance researcher and thought leader specialising in global macroeconomics and demographics. He presents to institutional clients in the private and public sectors across 30+ countries and is the founder of Global Macro Demographics. He is a research associate at London School of Economics' Systemic Risk Centre and an elected Honorary Fellow of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.

      Until June 2021, Amlan was head of Global Macro Research and senior managing director with State Street Global Advisors, having joined them in 2017 as chief retirement strategist. He was managing director and head of global demographics and pensions research with Credit Suisse Investment Bank from 1998 to 2016. In a prior role as global EM strategist, he developed global risk and allocation models as an expert on financial architecture during the Asian crisis.

       —Nobel Laureate Rabindranath Tagore (1905; in Bengali).Translation: “If no one responds to your call, then walk the distance yourself”.

      This book is the fruit of research efforts in the area of demographics over more than two decades. My initiation into demographics research owes a huge debt to Giles Keating, head of research at Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where I started the Global Demographics Project with him. Dick Hokenson, a collaborator, friend, and partner who joined Credit Suisse from DLJ in 2000, taught me a lot by sharing his knowledge as one of the experienced researchers in this area. Stefano Natella, former global head of equity research at Credit Suisse, was a strong supporter and believer, as was Lara Warner, business leaders (Gael de Boissard, Bob Jain, Tim O'Hara, Eraj Shirvani, and Stephen Dainton) provided management support at Credit Suisse, as did Rick Lacaille at State Street Global Advisors

      Several influencers deserve a mention of gratitude: Andy Abel, Mukul Asher, Zvi Bodie, David Bloom, John Campbell, Jim Poterba, Steve Haberman, Andy Abel, Larry Kotlikoff, Andrew Ang, Angela Maddaloni, Orazio Attanasio, Carlo Favero, David Miles, Jim Bullard, Dirk Broeders, Theo Kocken, Luis Viceira, Tom Steenkamp, Elroy Dimson, Pablo Antolin, Arun Muralidhar, Mirko Cardinale, and David Blake.

      Close friends Bala Venkatesh, Narayan Naik, Olivier Ledoit, David Webb, and Charles Bean have been there to debate, discuss, and teach me many things. Tom Frost and Tahir Wahid have been very special friends and colleagues in my career journey—my salute to them, too.

      A big thank you to the Systemic Risk Centre and Financial Markets Group of the London School of Economics (LSE), which I have been affiliated with. Thank you to the CFA Institute and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries for multiple conference speaking opportunities My thanks to the researchers and policymakers at the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Asian Development Bank (ADB), and Inter American Development Bank (IADB).

      My most important debt is to my lovely family, who have always supported me: my wife Anjana and daughters Antara and Anusha. My late aunt Subhanjali Sarkar and cousin Chitralekha were pillars of strength through many troubled times in the past, so I also owe a lot to them. And thanks to all those who have been pressuring me over the last eight years to write a book on demographics.

      Finally, I would like to thank Gemma Valler and Purvi Patel of Wiley for their guidance. A very special thanks to Tiffany Taylor for excellent editorial work in improving the book's readability. Gladys Ganaden created the nice cover design. Daughter Antara chose the final cover image. Thanks to Ashok Ravi who provided tips for efficient edits at final stage.

      I hope that this book contributes to inspiring readers to broaden their views and perspectives in more fields than just demographics. Viewing data and events from multiple angles provides additional richness to our insights.

      I believe that demographics pertains to each individual on the planet and not just the young or the old. I also highlight differences across old countries and old individuals, cautioning against blanket generalizations as the only defining criterion. The idea in the book is to explain relationships between demographic variables and economic as well as financial variables in an intuitive and consistent fashion. Wherever possible data, models, and frameworks are used to embellish the ideas.

      The structure of the book is as follows:

      1 Introduction. This chapter introduces and amplifies a broader, more insightful perspective of demographics. It presents the layout and chapter sequence with a few sentences to highlight the key issues, major take-aways, and challenges to a traditionalist perspective. It should encourage readers to go to specific chapters on a deeper dive to unravel various strands of demographics.

      2 Global demographic trends. This chapter summarises key trends with links to major public data sources. The purpose of highlighting these trends is to shed new light on several issues that readers broadly know of but often misinterpret or miss the point of. Age distributions (population pyramids), fertility, life expectancy, old-age dependency ratios, migration rates, gender ratios, etc.


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