The True Military Power of North Korea. Donald Trump
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information about military affairs, except in the case of life in the army, which is experienced by most men and many women. Because military organization and capabilities are considered state secrets, the best open-source information may still be defector testimony.
One questions whether the KPA would honor its orders to initiate an attack without delay. Kim Nam Joon, former KPA second lieutenant, stated that: “In the first stages of a war, 90 percent of the KPA soldiers would do as they were told — invade South Korea. They are ignorant, they don’t know right from wrong.” Although this may lead North Korean soldiers to conclude that their leaders have been lying to them, it instead may become a motivator as KPA soldiers become incensed about why their “brothers and sisters in the south” have not provided assistance to the North and have grown fat and corrupt.
Ability to Perform Its Missions Promptly. Mandatory military conscription lasts 8 years on average, with most servicemen performing the same job in the same unit the entire period. This stability in the ranks allows North Korean units to maintain readiness, while limiting the expenditure of scarce resources. However, this readiness may be false. North Korea is in a dilemma where they cannot reduce the military force because of the immensity of maintaining the large quantities of equipment in the KPA inventory and of providing labor for construction (fortifying the country and placing everything into underground facilities) and agriculture (the military must produce its own vegetables and meat). Military bases try to run greenhouses and farms, but they fail for the lack of materials and proper management.
Colonel Yoo Song Il, KPA Supply Corps, stated that in 1992, there was 9 days of food reserve for war. Daily food requirements for soldiers were 560 grams (20 oz) of rice, 240 grams (8.5 oz) of other grain, 100 grams of meat (3.5 oz), 1 KG of vegetables (2.2 lbs), 20 grams of soy sauce, and 10 grams of cigarettes. Kim Jong Il told them that soldiers must produce their own meat and vegetables. Another defector reported that malnutrition was spreading in the North Korean military. This defector stated that before the food shortage (probably a reference to 1999 when reportedly 2 million North Korean citizens died from malnutrition), 800g (just over 22 oz) of rice and 200g (7 oz) of meat was the official amount provided for 1 day; the soldiers have not been receiving the official amount for more than 10 years. It does not seem to be improving either. Rice has been replaced with corn or potatos, and meat is only provided for holidays.
A defector from Pyongyang stated that the effects of malnutrition can been seen in the countryside as students are stunted from a lack of food, and their physical strength is diminished. The KPA used to require that men had to be taller than 148 cm (58 inches) and heavier than 48 kg (106 lbs) but now that requirement is reportedly down to 145 cm (57 inches) and 40 kg (88 lbs).
The effects of malnutrition degrade everything from morale to body mass to mental faculties. One aspect that all defectors report is that even though the military is favored, there is still not enough food. Interestingly, North Korea reportedly cannot feed its population, but it has production lines running to produce tanks, artillery, ammunition, aircraft, submarines, surface ships, and missiles.
Conclusions.
Reunification of the peninsula on North Korean terms remains the foremost strategic goal of the regime. North Korea’s severe and probably irreversible economic decline places the regime’s survival in question. Therefore, Kim Jong Il must see reunification on their terms not only as their historic purpose, but also as essential to regime survival (another stated strategic goal). Continued investment in a powerful military organized and deployed to execute an offensive military strategy, despite its drain on a failing economy, strongly suggests that North Korean leaders perceive the military as probably the only remaining instrument for realization of that goal.
When evaluating an opposing enemy’s military forces, the commander will always ask what are the capabilities, the readiness, and the chances for enemy success? One must also add the question, “Would North Korea initiate an attack if its forces were not ready or capable?” Its current leader, Kim Jong Il, does not have the military training and experience that his father had. However, Kim’s father’s actual experiences and his father’s written experiences are two different things; the son is no different in this area. This differential view could lead to faulty or catastrophic decisions similar to those Saddam made in regard to military operations.
In March 2006, USFK Commander General Bell stated in Congressional testimony:
Despite its apparent economic decline and political isolation, North Korea continues to pose a dangerous and complex threat to regional and global peace and security. It maintains a massive, offensively postured conventional force that far exceeds the requirements to defend its country. There is little evidence to suggest the regime will abandon its “Military First” Policy, provocative diplomacy, nuclear challenges, missile proliferation and illegal activities, all of which are designed to contribute to its survival. North Korea will continue to maintain its bellicose stance toward the rest of the world, implementing limited policy and economic changes, while subjecting its people to continued repression. For now and into the foreseeable future, it will remain a major threat to stability and security in Northeast Asia and the world.
North Korea’s exact military and WMD capabilities may be incorrectly assessed, improperly evaluated, or simply unknown in some respects. However, there is no question that the KPA has significant offensive and defensive capabilities which cannot be overlooked or ignored. The debate continues as to what the KPA is focusing on and what its intentions for these military forces truly are. Whether or not these forces would be successful in either an offensive or defensive role probably is never questioned since it implies that failure is a possibility. The KPA may be employed based solely upon the whims of Pyongyang’s political leaders.
Conventional military forces and asymmetric SOF and WMD capabilities provide strong indications that North Korea’s intentions are still focused on a strategy of reunification by military force. If dictator Kim Jong Il ordered the KPA to launch an attack or invasion of South Korea, the North Korean military would be ready to implement it without question.
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