Book Wars. John B. Thompson
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We find some support for the idea that ebooks are a new format (rather than a new form) if we look at the sales patterns of ebooks in relation to print formats at Olympic. Table 1.7 and figures 1.11a and 1.11b show sales by book format at Olympic in the period between 2006 and 2016, first by units and then by dollars, as a percentage of total sales. What these figures show is that the steep rise of ebooks in the period between 2008 and 2012 was accompanied by a substantial decline in the sales of mass-market paperbacks, both by units and by dollars: mass-market paperbacks declined from 24% of units and 15% of revenue in 2006 and 2007 to a mere 10% of units and 6% of revenue in 2016. By contrast, neither the hardback nor the trade paperback formats experienced such severe decline. Hardcover units remained fairly stable at around 25%; they dipped in 2012 to as low as 18% but then recovered, returning to 25% in 2015 and rising to 32% in 2016 – higher than it had been at any time in the previous decade. Hardcover revenue was accounting for 40% of overall revenue in 2006; this fell to 25% in 2012 but then rebounded to 32% in 2015 and 43% in 2016 – again, higher than it had been at any time in the previous decade. Trade paperback unit sales declined from 40% in 2008 to 33% in 2013 but then rebounded, climbing back up to 38% by 2016. Similarly, trade paperback dollar sales declined from 37% in 2008 to 27% in 2013, rising back to 31% in 2016.
Table 1.7 Sales in percentages by format, units and dollars at Olympic, 2006–2016
| Ebooksunits | Ebooks$ | Hardcoverunits | Hardcover$ | Trade paperbackunits | Trade paperback$ | Mass marketunits | Mass market$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 40 | 38 | 35 | 24 | 15 |
| 2007 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 36 | 38 | 37 | 24 | 15 |
| 2008 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 38 | 40 | 37 | 23 | 15 |
| 2009 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 41 | 39 | 35 | 20 | 13 |
| 2010 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 36 | 40 | 35 | 18 | 12 |
| 2011 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 33 | 36 | 30 | 14 | 9 |
| 2012 | 22 | 26 | 18 | 25 | 39 | 35 | 10 | 6 |
| 2013 | 21 | 24 | 23 | 32 | 33 | 27 | 11 | 7 |
| 2014 | 20 | 24 | 22 | 29 | 36 | 30 | 10 | 7 |
| 2015 | 20 | 23 | 25 | 32 | 33 | 28 | 9 | 6 |
| 2016 | 20 | 20 | 32 | 43 | 38 | 31 | 10 | 6 |
Figure 1.11a Sales in percentages by format and units at Olympic, 2006–2016
Figure 1.11b Sales in percentages by format and dollars at Olympic, 2006–2016
The data from Olympic show pretty clearly that the rise of ebooks has eroded the markets for paperbacks, both trade and mass market, but that it has hit mass-market paperbacks particularly hard: in the decade when ebooks rose from virtually nothing to 20% of Olympic’s revenue, the share of Olympic’s revenue accounted for by mass-market paperback’s fell from 15% to 6%. The decline of the mass-market paperback is not a new phenomenon: mass-market paperback sales have been falling since the 1980s, their market undermined by various factors, including the heavy discounting of hardcover editions by the book superstore chains and the mass merchandisers. Why wait a year for the mass-market paperback of a new novel by James Patterson or Nora Roberts if you could buy the hardcover as soon as it’s published for less than $20? But the rise of ebooks has driven a few more nails into the coffin of the mass-market paperback.
To understand why ebooks have had a differential impact on print formats and have hit mass-market paperbacks particularly hard, we have to return to the point about windowing. In the world of print, the different formats of trade publishing are typically windowed: books are first published as hardcover at relatively high price points, and then brought out a year or so later as a paperback, either trade or mass market, at significantly lower price points. Windowing segments consumers into those who are willing to pay a higher price to get a new book quickly, on the one hand, and those who are willing to wait a year or more to get the book at a significantly lower price. But ebooks are typically not