The True Military Power of North Korea. Donald Trump
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720,000 in 1980 to 950,000 by 1994. Forward-deployed forces (those within 100km, or about 60 miles, of the DMZ) had increased from 40 percent to 70 percent of total troop strength.
Eventually, the primacy of conventional warfare again became doctrine which conceptualized and influenced North Korean operational art in the early 1990s; particularly influential are the concepts that emphasize the importance of operational and tactical mobility through the employment of mechanized forces, of firepower throughout the depth of the battlefield (North Korea designed and produced the 170mm gun, battle tested in the Iran/Iraq war, and the 240mm multiple rocket launcher to provide the KPA with a deep strike capability, which the North Korean Air Force does not provide), of deep strikes, and of command and control. Kim also stressed that each operational plan and campaign should aim at a lightning war for a quick decision.
Fall of the Soviet Union. The end of communist regimes in Eastern Europe and the collapse of the Soviet Union left Pyongyang without any significant ideological allies save China but also without essential economic and military assistance. Beginning in 1990, North Korea embarked on a comprehensive 5-year program to prepare the nation for war without outside assistance. This war preparation campaign was much broader and more rigorous than any previous effort. Improvement of the KPA’s capabilities was an important element of this campaign, which included reorganization, redeployment, and reinforcement, as well as quantitative and qualitative increases in training at all echelons.
After analyzing the 1991 Gulf War, North Korea increased its construction of underground facilities (command and control sites, logistics to include POL storage, military housing, and equipment such as artillery) to protect against the precision of U.S. weaponry allowing for the assembly of KPA military equipment and personnel in protected, underground facilities. Today, North Korea possesses as many as 10,000 such facilities.
North Korea has understood the importance of hardening its facilities from the Korean experience in World War II when Korean slave workers constructed underground bunkers for the Japanese military, including the Imperial Navy’s headquarters in Naha, Okinawa. However, from the end of the Korean War through Operation IRAQI FREEDOM, North Korea has understood the operational and tactical implications that its underground facilities provide from countering adversarial intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) to minimizing the impact of precision munitions.
The 1999 Kosovo War provided North Korea with another opportunity to evaluate U.S. military operations in an area with terrain and weather similar to that of the Korean Peninsula, which included studying the adverse effects that this terrain and weather had upon the U.S. high-tech arsenal. Today, these doctrines and strategies continue to be recalibrated to reflect changing capabilities and weapon acquisition. While ROK and U.S. analysts describe the KPA’s offensive strategy for a war of reunification as “blitzkrieg (lightning war),” the KPA represents its “two-front war” and “combined operations” strategies somewhat differently. North Korea will use a massive attack across the DMZ, utilizing overwhelming firepower and violence known as a “One Blow Non-stop Attack.” Concurrent with this will be limited use of chemical weapons against targets within the forward area; ballistic missile strikes (some armed with chemical warheads) against ROK and U.S. airbases, ports, and C3I assets throughout the ROK; operations by hundreds of SOF units; offensive naval mine employment and intelligence agents throughout the ROK creating a “second front;” and special operations forces and intelligence agent attacks against U.S. bases in Japan and Okinawa.
This military strategy also relies heavily on a surprise attack strategy which is very reminiscent of Sun Tzu: attacking the enemy at an unexpected time and place and by employing unexpected means, it can maximize time, speed, and secrecy. This strategy, coupled with an effective deception plan, is believed to yield maximum effects with minimum efforts. North Korean elements of its surprise attack include: (1) utilizing inclement weather, hours of darkness, and rugged terrain; (2) developing clever deception plans; (3) employing skilled infiltration teams (or resident sleeper agents); (4) conducting seaborne, air assault and parachute operations; (5) setting mass fires (this element of surprise allows for mine fields to be cleared quickly in the DMZ area as well as creating a diversion in an urban setting); (6) quickly concentrating the effects of combat power at a decisive area; and (7) employing large-scale mechanized units.
Occupying South Korea, All the Way to Pusan. The goals of this strategy are to move southward as quickly as possible, surround Seoul, gaining control of the ROK strategic rear area (especially airbases and ports), preventing reinforcement of the peninsula by U.S. and other allied forces, and inflicting as much damage as possible upon U.S. forces. In 1992, Kim Jong Il reportedly authored the plan as “Occupying South Korea, All the Way to Pusan in Three Days.”
The KPA leadership understands that, while it is unrealistic to believe they can occupy the ROK in 3 days, they do believe that if the political and military conditions are favorable, the KPA can achieve this goal within 3-4 weeks. The key has always been the race between occupying the peninsula and U.S. reinforcement/resupply. North Korea probably observed between Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait and the U.S.-led coalition counterattack, it took 5 1/2 months. However, the most important point to be made is that Iraq invaded and occupied Kuwait in a matter of hours. It took a U.S.-led coalition to win the country back.
North Korean leaders remember and have attempted to adapt to what they learned in 1950, that the United States and its United Nations (UN) allies stabilized the military situation on the Korean peninsula within 1 month after the KPA surprise attack, conducted a complex amphibious landing in 2 1/2 months, and conquered the enemy’s homeland in 4 months. North Korea never totally controlled the entire peninsula.
North Korean leaders saw the demise of the Soviet Union as primarily the result of Gorbachev’s “New Thinking,” which included the shift of the Soviet Union’s military strategy to “defensive defense.” A shift similar in North Korea will not happen as long as North Korea continues to maintain its strategic objectives of reunification and regime survival. Pyongyang cannot abandon its offensive military strategy.
The Role of Special Purpose Forces (including SOF). A dominant element of the KPA is its Special Purpose Forces. Unconventional warfare and the various aspects of North Korean military doctrine dictate the utilization of these forces in all aspects of the KPA’s doctrine and strategy. In any attempt to unify the peninsula by military means, these forces probably will be most critical in achieving success for the KPA.
Since the 1960s, North Korea increasingly has developed its SOF manpower (see Figure 5). These forces, which include the KPA special operations force (SOF), are the world’s largest, enjoy the highest military funding priority for the regime, and are tough, well-trained, and profoundly loyal. It is extremely difficult to determine the actual manpower count for SOF because of its nature. North Korea maintains SOF because of its nature. North Korea maintains 122,000 troops, with between 80,000 and 100,000 probably adjudged to be SOF. This significant increase signals the probable intentions of North Korea to use these forces in the fight for the rear area as the First Front.
Note: Compiled by authors from various sources.
Figure 5. North Korean soF Force Development.
The actual purpose for this large build-up of these elite forces is unknown. However, these SOF probably deal with the internal requirements of maintaining the military-first policy and the external requirements. North Korea’s special purpose forces are unique and do not mirror-image Chinese or Russian forces. The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) previously has reported that these KPA special forces have welldeveloped skills of repelling, mountain climbing, swimming, martial arts, airborne and amphibious landing instruction, demolition, and rigorous physical fitness that is complemented by their mental training that includes individual initiative, creativity, flexibility, and aggressiveness — similar to those associated with elite units throughout the world.
North Korean SOF fall into many different categories: ranger/commando, light infantry, airborne, sniper/strategic assassination, SEAL, reconnaissance, amphibious assault/naval infantry/marine, agent infiltration and intelligence operative. North Korean SOF are associated